LDU de Quito
vs
Barcelona SC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: LDU de Quito 1–0 Barcelona SC
The model makes it 38% LDU de Quito, 31% draw, 31% Barcelona SC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: LDU de Quito 1.22, Barcelona SC 0.98.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- LDU de Quito are 5th on 49 points from 31 games; Barcelona SC are bottom on 44 points from 30 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- LDU de Quito are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Universidad Catolica Quito.
- Barcelona SC are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Delfin SC.
- Last 6 meetings: LDU de Quito 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 July 2026, ended Barcelona SC 0–1 LDU de Quito.
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts LDU de Quito at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
- W2-1Universidad Catolica Quito20 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Cuenca13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Tecnico Universitario5 September 2026
- D0-0Mushuc Runa SC2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Guayaquil City FC29 August 2026
Barcelona SC
- D1-1Delfin SC13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Aucas7 September 2026
- W2-1Independiente del Valle3 September 2026
- L0-2away to Manta FC30 August 2026
- W3-0Orense SC23 August 2026
What these results say
- LDU de Quito scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for LDU de Quito.
- Barcelona SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC
- 27 July 2026Barcelona SC 0–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 4 April 2026LDU de Quito 0–2 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 23 November 2025Barcelona SC 2–2 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 18 October 2025LDU de Quito 3–0 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 25 July 2025Barcelona SC 0–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 19 June 2025LDU de Quito 3–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: LDU de Quito and Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
- M. Estrada6 goals1 assist
Barcelona SC
- D. Benedetto8 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
LDU de Quito carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.66 for Barcelona SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for LDU de Quito and 0.98 for Barcelona SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
LDU de Quito rate 0.68 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barcelona SC rate 0.74 and 1.10.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives LDU de Quito the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for LDU de Quito against 0.98 for Barcelona SC. LDU de Quito's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.1 for Barcelona SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
LDU de Quito at home · Barcelona SC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: LDU de Quito 31, Barcelona SC 30.
LDU de Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Barcelona SC have let in 3 there.
Barcelona SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); LDU de Quito have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
LDU de Quito
- at Aucas18 Oct · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Macara25 Oct · Liga Prowin 41%
- at Independiente del Valle1 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- at Barcelona SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 28%
- vs Aucas22 Nov · Liga Prowin 44%
Barcelona SC
- vs Universidad Catolica Quito18 Oct · Liga Prowin 41%
- at Aucas25 Oct · Liga Prowin 34%
- at Macara1 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
- vs LDU de Quito8 Nov · Liga Prowin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.