11 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Inter Turku vs KuPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Veritas Stadion, Turku
Referee: Mohammad Al-Emara
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Inter Turku 1-0 KuPS.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Inter Turku, 29% draw, 27% KuPS — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter Turku at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter Turku98%Draw2%KuPS0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Luka Kuittinen
5'
Eeli Kiiskilä
12'
24'
Clinton Antwi
45+2'
Valentin Gasc
55'
🔁Bob Nii Armahout: Ayman Aiki
60'
Brahima Magassa
62'
🔁Tommi Jyryout: Taneli Hämäläinen
🔁Lauri Laineout: Herman Sjögrell
67'
⚽Clinton Degol Jephtaassist: Herman Sjögrell
79'
79'
🔁Jaime Morenoout: Piotr Parzyszek
79'
🔁Saikou Tourayout: Julius Eskesen
79'
🔁Akseli Puukkoout: Saku Savolainen
🔁Eeli Kiiskiläout: Johannes Yli-Kokko
84'
87'
Miika Nuutinen
🔁Alie Contehout: Jean Botué
90'
🔁Jasse Tuominenout: Iiro Järvinen
90'

Match stats — Inter Turku vs KuPS

59%Possession41%
17Shots5
6On target1
3Corners2
2.48xG0.21

Goals against chances

Inter Turku1 from 2.48 xGless than the chances were worth
KuPS0 from 0.21 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter Turku 4-3-3
  • 1E. HuuhtanenG
  • 5A. GranlundD
  • 22L. KuittinenD
  • 6R. IvanovD
  • 2J. NiskaD
  • 9J. TuominenM
  • 14J. LaineM
  • 35Eeli KiiskiläM
  • 28L. LaineF
  • 10Alie ContehF
  • 16C. JephtaF
Substitutes
  • 30Y. AmankwahD
  • 11J. BotuéF
  • 3J. HämäläinenD
  • 19I. JärvinenM
  • 7H. SjögrellM
  • 33Muhammed SusoF
  • 24J. TauriainenD
  • 12E. VuorjokiG
  • 8J. Yli-KokkoM
Coach: V. Vasara
KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. KreidlG
  • 29A. PuukkoD
  • 28B. MagassaD
  • 23A. LötjönenD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 10V. GascM
  • 8P. PennanenM
  • 24B. ArmahM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 22S. TourayM
  • 11J. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 15A. AikiF
  • 34J. EskesenM
  • 33T. HämäläinenD
  • 13N. KujasaloM
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaF
  • 20P. ParzyszekF
  • 14S. PasanenM
  • 12H. RiihimäkiG
  • 6S. SavolainenF
Coach: M. Nuutinen

Form going into Inter Turku vs KuPS

Inter Turku

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Gnistan7 October 2026
  • W1-0away to AC Oulu18 September 2026
  • W1-0VPS14 September 2026
  • L1-2away to HJK Helsinki9 September 2026
  • W1-0KuPS31 August 2026

KuPS

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1AC Oulu8 October 2026
  • W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
  • D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Inter Turku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Inter Turku kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Turku had two goals or fewer.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
  • KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Inter Turku32171054327+1661
3KuPS32141174633+1353

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter Turku vs KuPS

  • 31 August 2026Inter Turku 1–0 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 30 May 2026KuPS 1–1 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 2 November 2025KuPS 3–2 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 5 October 2025Inter Turku 0–3 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 17 August 2025KuPS 2–1 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Inter Turku and KuPS

Inter Turku

GoalsAssists

  • H. Sjögrell82
  • Alie Conteh40

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno71
  • B. Armah40
  • P. Pennanen33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Inter Turku beat KuPS 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Inter Turku at 44%. The goal: Clinton Degol Jephta 79' for Inter Turku. Sent off: Brahima Magassa (KuPS) 60'. On expected goals it finished 2.48–0.21.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inter Turku a 60.0% chance to finish top of the Relegation Group: 75.4% after a win, 55.4% after a draw, 36.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.4%, 15.4 points higher than before the match.

For KuPS the question was the chance to finish top of the Relegation Group, 26.3% going in: 49.4% after a win, 27.7% after a draw, 12.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.4%, 13.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Inter Turku v KuPS has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Inter Turku's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Inter Turku win44%▲ +4
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. KuPS win27%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.