Inter Turku
vs
KuPS
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: Inter Turku 1–0 KuPS
The model makes it 40% Inter Turku, 30% draw, 30% KuPS — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Inter Turku 1.44, KuPS 1.11.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Inter Turku vs KuPS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Turku at 40% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Inter Turku vs KuPS
Inter Turku
- W1-0away to AC Oulu18 September 2026
- W1-0VPS14 September 2026
- L1-2away to HJK Helsinki9 September 2026
- W1-0KuPS31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS23 August 2026
KuPS
- W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
- D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
- L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026
What these results say
- Inter Turku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Turku kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Turku had two goals or fewer.
- KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Turku | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 32 | 18 | +14 | 48 |
| 1 | KuPS | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Turku vs KuPS
- 31 August 2026Inter Turku 1–0 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 30 May 2026KuPS 1–1 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 2 November 2025KuPS 3–2 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 5 October 2025Inter Turku 0–3 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 17 August 2025KuPS 2–1 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 5 April 2025Inter Turku 1–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Inter Turku and KuPS
Inter Turku
- H. Sjögrell6 goals1 assists
- J. Yli-Kokko2 goals1 assists
KuPS
- J. Moreno5 goals
- J. Luyeye-Lutumba3 goals1 assists
- B. Armah3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Inter Turku carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.44 for KuPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Inter Turku and 1.11 for KuPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Turku rate 0.58 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KuPS rate 0.65 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour KuPS, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Inter Turku a 59.1% chance of the title and KuPS 36.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Turku the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Inter Turku against 1.11 for KuPS. Inter Turku's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.49 for KuPS.