Rubio NU
vs
Olimpia
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Rubio NU 0-0 Olimpia.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Rubio NU, 26% draw, 47% Olimpia — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rubio NU 1.23, Olimpia 1.78.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Model insights: Rubio NU vs Olimpia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olimpia at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rubio NU vs Olimpia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25F. FraguedaG
- 13V. CabañasD
- 3J. VallejosD
- 5P. ÁlvarezD
- 2R. FerreiraD
- 23Tobías LeivaM
- 15C. NúñezM
- 26S. FretesM
- 29O. AlfonsoM
- 35L. MontielM
- 9R. Ruiz DíazF
- 16J. GonzálezD
- 32L. MaldonadoG
- 10W. MendietaM
- 17Kevin ParedesF
- 40Estiven Osmar Pérez YegrosF
- 14M. RamosD
- 8R. RojasM
- 11M. RoldánF
- 36C. GiménezD
- 1G. OlveiraG
- 27R. CáceresD
- 22J. VeraD
- 15M. GamarraD
- 23E. MatusD
- 6R. OrtizM
- 7F. CardozoM
- 5J. AlfaroM
- 20E. DelmásM
- 9G. ÁvalosF
- 11S. FerreiraF
- 30A. RodríguezD
- 17R. RedesF
- 18S. QuintanaM
- 4T. PayneD
- 12S. LentinellyG
- 29I. LeguizamónM
- 16J. DominguezM
- 24T. CaballeroF
- 35F. AlfonsoF
Form going into Rubio NU vs Olimpia
Rubio NU
- W2-1away to Sportivo Ameliano6 October 2026
- D2-22 de Mayo26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cerro Porteno19 September 2026
- L0-1Nacional Asuncion13 September 2026
Olimpia
- D1-1Nacional Asuncion6 October 2026
- W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion28 September 2026
- W3-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-0Sportivo Luqueno13 September 2026
What these results say
- Rubio NU conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rubio NU failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Olimpia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Olimpia scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Olimpia won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rubio NU | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 13 |
| 2 | Olimpia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rubio NU vs Olimpia
- 11 October 2026Rubio NU 0–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 2 August 2026Olimpia 5–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 12 April 2026Rubio NU 0–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 14 February 2026Olimpia 0–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 18 October 2017Rubio NU 0–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 6 August 2017Olimpia 3–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Rubio NU and Olimpia
Rubio NU
GoalsAssists
- R. Ruiz Díaz32
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- A. Alcaraz71
- S. Quintana41
- H. Sandoval40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Rubio NU carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.62 for Olimpia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Rubio NU and 1.78 for Olimpia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rubio NU rate 0.62 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olimpia rate 0.77 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rubio NU a 0% chance of the title and Olimpia 31.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpia the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Rubio NU against 1.78 for Olimpia. Rubio NU's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.22 for Olimpia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.