Orense SC
vs
Deportivo Cuenca
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Orense SC 1–0 Deportivo Cuenca
The model makes it 42% Orense SC, 29% draw, 29% Deportivo Cuenca — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Orense SC 1.62, Deportivo Cuenca 1.15.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Orense SC are 13th on 33 points from 31 games; Deportivo Cuenca are 12th on 37 points from 31 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Orense SC have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Manta FC.
- Deportivo Cuenca are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Mushuc Runa SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Orense SC 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Orense SC 2–0 Deportivo Cuenca.
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orense SC at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
- L1-2away to Manta FC21 September 2026
- L1-2away to Universidad Catolica Quito15 September 2026
- W4-3Guayaquil City FC8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leones del Norte3 September 2026
- L1-2Macara30 August 2026
Deportivo Cuenca
- D1-1Mushuc Runa SC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to LDU de Quito13 September 2026
- L0-1Libertad7 September 2026
- W1-0Guayaquil City FC2 September 2026
- L1-3away to Tecnico Universitario29 August 2026
What these results say
- Orense SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orense SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orense SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cuenca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cuenca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cuenca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Orense SC | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 33 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
- 16 August 2026Orense SC 2–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 22 April 2026Deportivo Cuenca 1–3 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 31 August 2025Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 10 May 2025Orense SC 1–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 10 August 2024Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 10 March 2024Orense SC 1–1 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Orense SC and Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
- A. Herrera8 goals2 assists
Deportivo Cuenca
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orense SC carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.33 for Deportivo Cuenca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Orense SC and 1.15 for Deportivo Cuenca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orense SC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Cuenca rate 0.52 and 1.49.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orense SC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Orense SC against 1.15 for Deportivo Cuenca. Orense SC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.49 for Deportivo Cuenca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orense SC at home · Deportivo Cuenca away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Orense SC 31, Deportivo Cuenca 31.
Orense SC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Deportivo Cuenca have let in 8 there.
Deportivo Cuenca score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Orense SC have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Orense SC
- at Mushuc Runa SC18 Oct · Liga Prowin 28%
- vs Delfin SC25 Oct · Liga Prowin 44%
- vs Tecnico Universitario1 Nov · Liga Prowin 46%
- at Deportivo Cuenca8 Nov · Liga Prowin 31%
- vs Mushuc Runa SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 39%
Deportivo Cuenca
- vs Tecnico Universitario18 Oct · Liga Prowin 43%
- at Manta FC25 Oct · Liga Prowin 33%
- at Delfin SC1 Nov · Liga Prowin 31%
- vs Orense SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 40%
- at Tecnico Universitario22 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.