11 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Universidad Catolica vs Macara Liga Pro prediction & result

Quito

Referee: Patricio Parrao

Full time0 – 1

Final score: Universidad Catolica 0-1 Macara.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Universidad Catolica, 25% draw, 26% Macara — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published 15 October 2026

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Has the model earned this number?

It puts Universidad Catolica at 49% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universidad Catolica0%Draw6%Macara94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'

⚽Franco Posseassist: augustin campana

44'

Eric David Valencia Reasco

45+4'

Jordán Josué Mohor Nazareno

45'

🔁Eric David Valencia Reascoout: Jhostin David Mina Herrera

45'

🔁Bruss Abadi Coello Moreiraout: Carlos Caicedo

45'

🔁Andrés Rodríguezout: José Fajardo

47'

•Byron Palacios

49'

⚽José Fajardo (pen)

64'

🔁Eddy Mejiaout: Azarias Londono

72'

🔁Byron Palaciosout: Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda

72'

🔁Daniel Clavijoout: Facundo Martinez

73'

Mauro Díaz

76'

🔁M. Vieraout: Luis Loor

76'

🔁Jordán Josué Mohor Nazarenoout: Marlon Medranda

87'

🔁augustin campanaout: Patricio Andrés Ramos Llerena

88'

Azarias Londono

90+2'

🔁Franco Posseout: Luca Agustín Ferro

Match stats — Universidad Catolica vs Macara

0%Possession32%

0Shots12

0On target4

0Corners5

0xG0.98

Line-ups

Macara 4-2-3-1

1R. RodriguezG
25J. BolañosD
4J. JiménezD
14J. MarrufoD
27J. MohorD
52B. CoelloM
16J. CazaresM
28A. CampanaM
15M. TelloM
20M. VieraM
9F. PosseF

Substitutes

77J. ChaláF
19P. RamosF
26M. MedrandaD
87J. KlingerF
22L. FerroF
11Tono EspinozaM
3Juan EspinozaD
12D. CueroG
50C. CaicedoM

Coach: G. Sanguinetti

Form going into Universidad Catolica vs Macara