Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Jaguares 3-2 Deportes Tolima.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Jaguares, 30% draw, 41% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Deportes Tolima at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12F. MosqueraG
- 4J. FrancoD
- 6J. LoveraD
- 29C. HenaoD
- 18L. JiménezD
- 5R. ColpaM
- 21R. BustamanteM
- 7W. De La RosaM
- 10C. ÁlvarezM
- 9J. MejiaM
- 11A. RenteríaF
- 2A. AlfonsoM
- 16E. BeltránF
- 24S. CubidesF
- 27F. GraciaM
- 26Elio LópezG
- 17D. LópezF
- 28D. ZuluagaM
- 32Jose YanezM
- 34Cristian Castro
- 1Neto VolpiG
- 33J. MosqueraD
- 14H. MartínezD
- 2A. AnguloD
- 80B. RoviraD
- 30S. P. Barbosa GomezD
- 8E. ValenciaM
- 20J. HernándezM
- 32S. GuzmánM
- 24A. ParraF
- 15Sergio AguayoF
- 28E. LópezF
- 5J. MeraD
- 34Gustavo Moreno
- 11J. ValenciaF
- 13M. OrtegaG
- 16V. ReyesM
- 9L. SandovalF
- 29Néifer SánchezF
Form going into Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima
Jaguares
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
Deportes Tolima
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Atletico Nacional8 October 2026
- D0-0Chico3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportes Tolima went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Deportes Tolima did not win any of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Deportes Tolima had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jaguares | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 35 | -18 | 13 |
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima
- 28 March 2026Deportes Tolima 3–1 JaguaresPrimera A
- 19 August 2024Jaguares 0–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 15 February 2024Deportes Tolima 2–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 6 October 2023Jaguares 0–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 26 April 2023Deportes Tolima 1–1 JaguaresPrimera A
Leading scorers: Jaguares and Deportes Tolima
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería123
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Jaguares beat Deportes Tolima 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportes Tolima at 41% and given a win for Jaguares 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Luis Jimenez 40' for Jaguares, Johan Beltrán 67' for Jaguares, Adrián Parra 77' for Deportes Tolima, Adrián Parra 87' for Deportes Tolima, Darwin Lopez 90+3' for Jaguares. On expected goals it finished 0.39–1.53.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jaguares a 69.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 53.0% after a win, 72.0% after a draw, 79.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.0%, 16.5 points lower than before the match.
For Deportes Tolima the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.6% going in: 9.2% after a win, 3.3% after a draw, 1.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.6%, 4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Jaguares v Deportes Tolima has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 31% / 31% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 29% / 30% / 41%: the biggest move is Deportes Tolima's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Jaguares win29%▼ −2
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Deportes Tolima win41%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.