Jaguares
vs
Deportes Tolima
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Jaguares 0–1 Deportes Tolima
The model makes it 31% Jaguares, 31% draw, 38% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 3.23, 3.23 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Jaguares 1.08, Deportes Tolima 1.28.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Tolima at 38% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima
Jaguares
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026
- D3-3away to Junior6 September 2026
- D2-2America de Cali29 August 2026
- W1-0Chico21 August 2026
Deportes Tolima
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Once Caldas16 September 2026
- L0-1away to Santa Fe12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros7 September 2026
- W2-1Cucuta1 September 2026
What these results say
- Jaguares scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportes Tolima conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jaguares | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Jaguares and Deportes Tolima
Jaguares
- A. Rentería9 goals3 assists
Deportes Tolima
- L. Sandoval8 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Jaguares carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.58 for Deportes Tolima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Jaguares and 1.28 for Deportes Tolima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jaguares rate 0.63 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportes Tolima rate 0.68 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jaguares a 0% chance of the title and Deportes Tolima 1.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes Tolima the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Jaguares against 1.28 for Deportes Tolima. Jaguares's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.18 for Deportes Tolima.