Lausanne
vs
FC Lugano
Super League prediction
Our model says: Lausanne 0–1 FC Lugano
The model makes it 32% Lausanne, 31% draw, 37% FC Lugano — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lausanne 1.05, FC Lugano 1.24.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lausanne vs FC Lugano
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Lausanne wins, grey are draws, red are FC Lugano wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lausanne vs FC Lugano
Lausanne
- L0-1Servette FC13 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Vaduz5 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Thun2 September 2026
- L2-3FC Zurich29 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Luzern22 August 2026
FC Lugano
- D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
- W1-0Servette FC3 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Sion30 August 2026
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lausanne | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lausanne vs FC Lugano
- 22 February 2026FC Lugano 2–1 LausanneSuper League
- 7 December 2025Lausanne 0–0 FC LuganoSuper League
- 17 September 2025FC Lugano 1–1 LausanneSuper League
- 18 May 2025Lausanne 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 21 April 2025Lausanne 2–0 FC LuganoSuper League
- 15 December 2024FC Lugano 1–4 LausanneSuper League
Leading scorers: Lausanne and FC Lugano
Lausanne
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assists
- Y. Cimignani3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lausanne carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.6 for FC Lugano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Lausanne and 1.24 for FC Lugano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lausanne rate 0.52 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Lugano rate 0.75 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lausanne a 0% chance of the title and FC Lugano 64.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Lausanne against 1.24 for FC Lugano. Lausanne's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.24 for FC Lugano.