20 September 2026, 14:30 UTC

FC Basel 1893 vs FC St. Gallen Super League prediction & result

St. Jakob-Park, Basel
Full time1 – 3

Final score: FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC St. Gallen.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% FC Basel 1893, 29% draw, 29% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Basel 1893 at 42% here. Across 5,232 settled matches (as of 31 October 2026), 2,421 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Basel 18930%Draw1%FC St. Gallen99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Aliou Balde
Clément Michelin
21'
26'
Aliou Balde
Jonas harder
31'
42'
Enrico Maaßen
⚽Žan Celar (pen)
43'
🔁Jonas harderout: Ludwig Thorell
45'
45'
🔁Jozo Stanićout: Joel Ruiz
61'
🔁Aliou Baldeout: Nevio Scherrer
62'
🔁Betim Fazlijiout: Carlo Boukhalfa
🔁Clément Michelinout: Moussa Cisse
64'
65'
⚽Christian Witzigassist: Carlo Boukhalfa
🔁Philip Oteleout: Aaron Malouda
71'
Kazeem Olaigbe
75'
78'
🔁Andrin Hunzikerout: Diego Besio
🔁Keigo Tsunemotoout: giacomo koloto
81'
85'
⚽Carlo Boukhalfa
86'
🔁Hugo Vandermerschout: Tom Gaal
Xherdan Shaqiri
90+2'

Match stats — FC Basel 1893 vs FC St. Gallen

68%Possession32%
10Shots24
2On target9
5Corners7

Line-ups

FC Basel 1893 4-2-3-1
  • 13M. SalviG
  • 6K. TsunemotoD
  • 24F. DaniliucD
  • 55A. VictoryD
  • 22C. MichelinD
  • 5MetinhoM
  • 44J. HarderM
  • 11K. OlaigbeM
  • 10X. ShaqiriM
  • 7P. OteleM
  • 9Ž. CelarF
Substitutes
  • 37G. KolotoF
  • 41J. DoucoureM
  • 29M. CisséD
  • 8L. Małachowski ThorellM
  • 17A. MaloudaF
  • 4B. OmeragićD
  • 27K. RüeggD
  • 3N. VouillozD
  • 49Renato Widmer D’AutiliaG
Coach: Luigi Nocentini
FC St. Gallen 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. ZigiG
  • 3C. Kleine-BekelD
  • 4J. StanićD
  • 36C. OkorojiD
  • 64M. StevanovicM
  • 7C. WitzigM
  • 10L. DaschnerM
  • 23B. FazlijiM
  • 28H. VandermerschM
  • 9A. HunzikerF
  • 14A. BaldeF
Substitutes
  • 25L. WatkowiakG
  • 31D. BesioF
  • 11C. BoukhalfaM
  • 20L. FrokajM
  • 26T. GaalD
  • 68M. HeydariD
  • 47E. OwusuM
  • 74J. RuizD
  • 70N. ScherrerF
Coach: E. Maaßen

Form going into FC Basel 1893 vs FC St. Gallen

FC Basel 1893

Super League

  • W4-2away to FC Luzern13 September 2026
  • L1-3FC Lugano6 September 2026

FC St. Gallen

Super League

  • L1-4away to FC Lugano16 September 2026
  • L0-3FC Sion12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7FC Basel 1893114251720-314
6FC St. Gallen115151721-416

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Basel 1893 vs FC St. Gallen

  • 14 May 2026FC Basel 1893 1–3 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 8 March 2026FC St. Gallen 3–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 4 February 2026FC St. Gallen 2–1 FC Basel 1893Schweizer Cup
  • 30 November 2025FC Basel 1893 0–0 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 26 July 2025FC St. Gallen 2–1 FC Basel 1893Super League

Leading scorers: FC Basel 1893 and FC St. Gallen

FC Basel 1893

GoalsAssists

  • Ž. Celar61
  • A. Sow34
  • X. Shaqiri31

FC St. Gallen

GoalsAssists

  • A. Balde31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC St. Gallen won 3–1 at FC Basel 1893. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Basel 1893 at 42% and given a win for FC St. Gallen 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Aliou Balde 9' for FC St. Gallen, Žan Celar (penalty) 43' for FC Basel 1893, Christian Witzig 65' for FC St. Gallen, Carlo Boukhalfa 85' for FC St. Gallen.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.