FC Vaduz vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Vaduz 1-2 FC Thun.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% FC Vaduz, 28% draw, 27% FC Thun — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Swiss Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Vaduz at 45% here. Across 5,232 settled matches (as of 31 October 2026), 2,421 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Vaduz vs FC Thun
Line-ups
- 25L. SchaffranG
- 4N. HaslerD
- 27N. LangD
- 6D. SimaniD
- 7D. SchwizerD
- 20L. MackM
- 17J. StarkM
- 10Juan CabreraM
- 28M. ĆoćićM
- 9M. MonsbergerF
- 11L. DalipiF
- 37L. CelentanoD
- 1B. BüchelG
- 14M. BeeliD
- 19D. DjokicF
- 38N. FollmiG
- 23M. HammerichM
- 18D. KasperF
- 29M. SawadogoD
- 30Mattia WalkerM
- 1N. SteffenG
- 37L. DählerD
- 19J. BamertD
- 13N. ZoukitD
- 18T. StrannegårdD
- 16J. RothM
- 14M. KäitM
- 70N. ReichmuthM
- 8F. SaizM
- 96B. LabeauF
- 9F. DursunF
- 26N. ChristofferssonF
- 21D. DerbaciM
- 47F. FehrD
- 15P. KristalM
- 80S. LengenF
- 30N. MaierM
- 2O. MambwaD
- 54L. PassavantD
- 25T. SpycherG
Form going into FC Vaduz vs FC Thun
FC Vaduz
Super League
- L1-2away to FC Zurich13 September 2026
- W3-1Lausanne5 September 2026
FC Thun
Super League
- L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
- L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Vaduz vs FC Thun
- 11 May 2025FC Vaduz 3–3 FC ThunChallenge League
- 24 January 2025FC Thun 3–1 FC VaduzChallenge League
- 19 October 2024FC Vaduz 2–0 FC ThunChallenge League
- 28 July 2024FC Thun 2–0 FC VaduzChallenge League
- 17 May 2024FC Thun 6–3 FC VaduzChallenge League
Leading scorers: FC Vaduz and FC Thun
FC Vaduz
GoalsAssists
- M. Monsberger61
- L. Dalipi59
- Juan Cabrera40
FC Thun
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Thun won 2–1 at FC Vaduz. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Vaduz at 45% and given a win for FC Thun 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Furkan Dursun 33' for FC Thun, Nils·Reichmuth 49' for FC Thun, Marcel Monsberger 73' for FC Vaduz.
How the call on FC Vaduz v FC Thun has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is FC Vaduz's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- FC Vaduz win45%▼ −2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- FC Thun win27%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.