Teplice
vs
Plzen
The model makes it 37% Teplice, 28% draw, 35% Plzen — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Teplice 1.30, Plzen 1.24.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Teplice
- W1-0away to Slovan Liberec1 August 2026
- W3-1Bohemians 190525 July 2026
Plzen
- D1-1Zbrojovka Brno1 August 2026
- L1-3Slovan Liberec25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Teplice | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 12 | Plzen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Teplice vs Plzen
- 4 April 2026Plzen 2–2 TepliceCzech Liga
- 2 November 2025Teplice 1–2 PlzenCzech Liga
- 16 February 2025Teplice 0–2 PlzenCzech Liga
- 5 December 2024Plzen 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 28 April 2024Plzen 3–0 TepliceCzech Liga
- 22 July 2023Teplice 1–0 PlzenCzech Liga
Leading scorers
Teplice
- M. Pulkrab2 goals
Plzen
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Teplice carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.85 for Plzen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Teplice W-W; Plzen L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Teplice and 1.24 for Plzen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Teplice rate 0.85 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plzen rate 0.77 and 0.81.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Teplice the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Teplice against 1.24 for Plzen. Teplice's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/0.81 for Plzen.