Teplice vs Plzen Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Teplice 5-5 Plzen.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Teplice, 28% draw, 35% Plzen — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Teplice at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 10 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Teplice vs Plzen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29Matouš TrmalG
- 6Michal BílekD
- 4Oskars VientiessD
- 5Jakub JakubkoD
- 25Matej RizničD
- 8Jan FortelnýM
- 23Lukáš MarečekM
- 35Matej RadostaM
- 12Marcel ČermákM
- 17John AutaM
- 10Matej PulkrabF
- 28Dalibor VečerkaD
- 3Josef ŠvandaM
- 33Tomas ZlatohlavekF
- 11Matyáš KozákF
- 31Krystof LichtenbergG
- 13Denys TaradudaD
- 14Ladislav KrejčíM
- 37Daniel MarečekM
- 16Petr KodesM
- 44Florian WiegeleG
- 98Filip PrebslD
- 40Sampson DwehD
- 5Karel SpáčilD
- 14Merchas DoskiD
- 17Patrik HrošovskýM
- 36Stefan PirgićM
- 99Amar MemićM
- 19Cheick SouaréM
- 25Christophe KabongoM
- 11Matěj VydraF
- 6Lukáš ČervM
- 9Denis VišinskýM
- 37Dávid KrčíkD
- 80Prince Kwabena AduF
- 1Dominik ŤapajG
- 12Alexandr SojkaM
- 66Sebastian BoháčM
- 20Jiří PanošM
- 23Baboucarr FaalF
Form going into Teplice vs Plzen
Teplice
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Slovan Liberec1 August 2026
- W3-1Bohemians 190525 July 2026
Plzen
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Zbrojovka Brno1 August 2026
- L1-3Slovan Liberec25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Teplice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 21 |
| 8 | Plzen | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Teplice vs Plzen
- 4 April 2026Plzen 2–2 TepliceCzech Liga
- 2 November 2025Teplice 1–2 PlzenCzech Liga
- 16 February 2025Teplice 0–2 PlzenCzech Liga
- 5 December 2024Plzen 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 28 April 2024Plzen 3–0 TepliceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Teplice and Plzen
Teplice
GoalsAssists
- M. Pulkrab43
- John Auta40
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo50
- A. Memić46
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Teplice and Plzen drew 5–5. The model had leaned towards a win for Teplice at 37% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: P. Hrosovsky 1' for Plzen, C. Kabongo 3' for Plzen, S. Dweh 10' for Plzen, L. Marecek 12' for Teplice, M. Radosta 21' for Teplice, M. Vydra 28' for Plzen, M. Cermak 35' for Teplice, J. Auta 54' for Teplice, J. Fortelny 59' for Teplice, D. Visinsky 68' for Plzen. Sent off: D. Krcik (Plzen) 88'. On expected goals it finished 1.41–2.49.