13 September 2026, 12:00 UTC

KuPS vs HJK Helsinki Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Vare Areena, Kuopio
Full time0 – 0

Final score: KuPS 0-0 HJK Helsinki.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% KuPS, 27% draw, 29% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts KuPS at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KuPS6%Draw90%HJK Helsinki4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Akseli Puukko
34'
🔁A. Puukkoout: S. Savolainen
46'
63'
🔁M. Borchersout: T. Pukki
🔁A. Aikiout: C. Kabuye
71'
72'
🔁L. Mollerout: L. Lappalainen
🔁J. Eskesenout: S. Pasanen
84'
🔁T. Jyryout: J. Luyeye-Lutumba
84'
84'
🔁P. Mentuout: L. Lingman
84'
🔁A. Ringout: J. Kallinen
90'
Martin Kirilov

Match stats — KuPS vs HJK Helsinki

52%Possession48%
14Shots14
2On target2
7Corners4

Line-ups

KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. KreidlG
  • 29A. PuukkoD
  • 28B. MagassaD
  • 23A. LotjonenD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 10V. R. GascM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 34J. EskesenM
  • 8P. PennanenM
  • 15A. AikiF
  • 11J. J. Moreno CiorciariF
Substitutes
  • 12H. RiihimakiG
  • 6S. SavolainenD
  • 33T. HamalainenD
  • 4K. AdamsD
  • 22S. TourayM
  • 14S. PasanenM
  • 13N. KujasaloM
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
  • 19C. KabuyeF
Coach: Miika Nuutinen
HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. OstG
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 4A. RingM
  • 22L. MollerM
  • 11M. KirilovM
  • 7A. CicaleM
  • 9M. BorchersF
Substitutes
  • 30J. SamoojaG
  • 17N. AlhoD
  • 31M. BogicevicD
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 15J. KallinenM
  • 32M. GueyeM
  • 20T. PukkiF
  • 26L. LappalainenM
  • 29S. HaaralaF
Coach: Joonas Rantanen

Form going into KuPS vs HJK Helsinki

KuPS

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
  • W1-0Shamrock Rovers27 August 2026
  • L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Shamrock Rovers20 August 2026

HJK Helsinki

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Inter Turku9 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Ilves31 August 2026
  • L2-3Gnistan23 August 2026
  • W3-0FF Jaro16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Motherwell13 August 2026

What these results say

  • KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • KuPS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • KuPS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HJK Helsinki scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HJK Helsinki conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for HJK Helsinki had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3KuPS30141154629+1753
1HJK Helsinki3016775936+2355

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: KuPS vs HJK Helsinki

  • 27 June 2026HJK Helsinki 0–4 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 26 April 2026KuPS 1–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 9 November 2025HJK Helsinki 0–2 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 19 October 2025KuPS 3–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 20 September 2025HJK Helsinki 1–0 KuPSSuomen Cup

Leading scorers: KuPS and HJK Helsinki

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno71
  • B. Armah40
  • P. Pennanen33

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers143
  • T. Pukki43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

KuPS and HJK Helsinki drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for KuPS at 44% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

How the call on KuPS v HJK Helsinki has moved

First published on 3 Sep at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is KuPS's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. KuPS win44%▲ +6
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. HJK Helsinki win29%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.