14 September 2026, 01:00 UTC

San Diego vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result

Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego
Full time0 – 5

Final score: San Diego 0-5 Philadelphia Union.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% San Diego, 28% draw, 35% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts San Diego at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Bruno Damiani
Alejandro Alvarado Jr
45+2'
•Alejandro Alvarado Jr
45'
45+7'
Neil Pierre
45'
⚽C. Sullivanassist: I. Vassilev
🔁A. Alvarado Jrout: A. Godoy
60'
🔁O. Valakariout: D. Vazquez
60'
🔁A. Pellegrinoout: C. Bakambu
60'
61'
⚽C. Sullivanassist: I. Vassilev
67'
⚽B. Damianiassist: F. Westfield
70'
🔁I. Vassilevout: Q. Sullivan
🔁E. Achouriout: B. B. Zamble
73'
77'
🔁C. Sullivanout: J. Bueno
77'
🔁B. Damianiout: E. Alladoh
🔁I. Murphyout: D. Thorhallsson
81'
86'
🔁N. Pierreout: J. Sery Larsen
86'
🔁M. Iloskiout: M. Jakupovic
87'
⚽A. Godoy (OG)
Oscar Verhoeven
90+1'
90'
⚽M. Jakupovic

Match stats — San Diego vs Philadelphia Union

59%Possession41%
10Shots21
5On target5
11Corners4
1.21xG2.75

Goals against chances

San Diego0 from 1.21 xGless than the chances were worth
Philadelphia Union5 from 2.75 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

San Diego 4-3-3
  • 18D. FerreeG
  • 33O. VerhoevenD
  • 26M. DuahD
  • 32I. MurphyD
  • 5K. Sargeant
  • 70A. Alvarado JrM
  • 6J. TverskovM
  • 8O. ValakariM
  • 10A. DreyerF
  • 90A. PellegrinoF
  • 99E. AchouriF
Substitutes
  • 13P. SisniegaG
  • 3D. ThorhallssonD
  • 97C. McVeyD
  • 23S. VinesD
  • 20A. GodoyM
  • 19D. VazquezM
  • 15P. SomaM
  • 94C. BakambuF
  • 14B. B. ZambleF
Coach: Mikey Varas
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
  • 18A. BlakeG
  • 39F. WestfieldD
  • 44N. PierreD
  • 26N. HarrielD
  • 27K. WagnerD
  • 6C. SullivanM
  • 21D. Jean JacquesM
  • 4J. LukicM
  • 19I. VassilevM
  • 9B. DamianiF
  • 10M. IloskiF
Substitutes
  • 76A. RickG
  • 5J. Sery LarsenD
  • 11A. BedoyaM
  • 33Q. SullivanM
  • 8J. BuenoM
  • 16B. BenderM
  • 28A. AnelloF
  • 23E. AlladohF
  • 51M. JakupovicF
Coach: Ryan Richter

Form going into San Diego vs Philadelphia Union

San Diego

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3San Jose Earthquakes10 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
  • W3-1Los Angeles Galaxy30 August 2026
  • W3-0Colorado Rapids23 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Portland Timbers20 August 2026

Philadelphia Union

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
  • W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to New York Red Bulls29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Austin23 August 2026
  • D2-2Inter Miami19 August 2026

What these results say

  • San Diego scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • San Diego conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.
  • Philadelphia Union went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13San Diego32811135662-635
6Philadelphia Union32138116250+1247

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: San Diego and Philadelphia Union

San Diego

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 56 league goals as a side.

Philadelphia Union

GoalsAssists

  • M. Iloski192

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Philadelphia Union won 5–0 at San Diego. The model had leaned towards a win for San Diego at 37% and given a win for Philadelphia Union 35%. The goals: C. Sullivan 45' for Philadelphia Union, C. Sullivan 61' for Philadelphia Union, B. Damiani 67' for Philadelphia Union, A. Godoy (own goal) 87' for Philadelphia Union, M. Jakupovic 90' for Philadelphia Union. On expected goals it finished 1.21–2.75.

How the call on San Diego v Philadelphia Union has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Philadelphia Union's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. San Diego win37%▼ −4
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Philadelphia Union win35%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.