13 September 2026, 16:20 UTC

NEOM vs Al-Fateh Pro League prediction & result

King Khalid Sports City, Tabuk
Full time4 – 2

Final score: NEOM 4-2 Al-Fateh.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% NEOM, 27% draw, 24% Al-Fateh — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NEOM at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NEOM99%Draw1%Al-Fateh0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Khalil Al-Absi
6'
⚽A. Lacazette (pen)
16'
Amadou Koné
39'
41'
⚽M. Batna
42'
Mihai Lixandru
⚽A. Koneassist: M. Al Saad
51'
64'
⚽W. Kanga
🔁K. Al Absiout: G. Masouras
65'
⚽A. Lacazetteassist: I. Hawsawi
70'
🔁M. Al Saadout: V. Vada
75'
🔁I. Hawsawiout: M. Abu Taha
76'
⚽V. Vadaassist: M. Abu Taha
79'
81'
🔁Bin Mahmoudout: A. R. Al Khaibre
81'
🔁L. Haraslinout: F. Al Zubaidi
81'
🔁A. Al Hassanout: S. Al Sharfa
81'
🔁F. Al Abdulwahedout: H. Essadak
87'
🔁W. Kangaout: Ramos Jefferson
🔁A. Al Oyayariout: K. Al Dawsari
90'
🔁A. Hejjiout: A. Al Hassan
90'

Match stats — NEOM vs Al-Fateh

63%Possession37%
21Shots13
6On target7
11Corners3
2.32xG1.26

Goals against chances

NEOM4 from 2.32 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Fateh2 from 1.26 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NEOM 4-4-2
  • 1M. BulkaG
  • 15A. Al OyayariD
  • 5M. SarrD
  • 44N. ZezeD
  • 27I. HawsawiD
  • 77M. Al SaadM
  • 18A. Hejji
  • 72A. KoneM
  • 14K. Al AbsiM
  • 91A. LacazetteF
  • 70H. CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 33A. Dagriri
  • 19M. Abu TahaD
  • 55M. Al DossaryD
  • 4K. Al DawsariD
  • 8F. Al GhamdiM
  • 6A. Al Hassan
  • 23V. VadaM
  • 7G. MasourasF
  • 22A. Al AnziF
Coach: Christophe Galtier
Al-Fateh 4-3-3
  • 1A. SemperG
  • 87Bin Mahmoud
  • 4Z. Al JariD
  • 8M. LixandruD
  • 16A. I. Al KhaibariD
  • 6A. Al HassanM
  • 28Z. YoussoufM
  • 80F. Al AbdulwahedM
  • 11M. BatnaF
  • 9W. KangaF
  • 10L. HaraslinF
Substitutes
  • 94W. Al EneziG
  • 19R. KelderD
  • 63M. Al ShqaqD
  • 22A. R. Al Khaibre
  • 25M. Al Sahihi
  • 7F. Al ZubaidiF
  • 49S. Al SharfaF
  • 20H. EssadakM
  • 21Ramos JeffersonF
Coach: Khaled Al Atwi

Form going into NEOM vs Al-Fateh

NEOM

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
  • W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026

Al-Fateh

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
  • D0-0Al-Ittihad29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6NEOM11614169+719
16Al-Fateh111371023-136

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: NEOM and Al-Fateh

NEOM

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lacazette62
  • A. Koné41

Al-Fateh

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NEOM beat Al-Fateh 4–2. The model had made a win for NEOM its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Lacazette (penalty) 16' for NEOM, M. Batna 41' for Al-Fateh, A. Kone 51' for NEOM, W. Kanga 64' for Al-Fateh, A. Lacazette 70' for NEOM, V. Vada 79' for NEOM. On expected goals it finished 2.32–1.26.

How the call on NEOM v Al-Fateh has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is NEOM's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. NEOM win49%▲ +7
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. Al-Fateh win24%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.