NEOM
vs
Al-Fateh
Pro League prediction & result
Final score: NEOM 4-2 Al-Fateh.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% NEOM, 25% draw, 23% Al-Fateh — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: NEOM 2.26, Al-Fateh 1.10.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: NEOM vs Al-Fateh
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEOM at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NEOM vs Al-Fateh
NEOM
- W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
- W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Riyadh28 August 2026
- L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC24 August 2026
Al-Fateh
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Ittihad29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Faisaly FC26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NEOM | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 15 |
| 15 | Al-Fateh | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: NEOM and Al-Fateh
NEOM
- A. Lacazette5 goals1 assists
- A. Koné4 goals1 assists
Al-Fateh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
NEOM carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.53 for Al-Fateh. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.26 goals for NEOM and 1.10 for Al-Fateh. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEOM rate 0.94 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Fateh rate 0.77 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NEOM a 3.9% chance of the title and Al-Fateh 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEOM the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for NEOM against 1.1 for Al-Fateh. NEOM's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.48 for Al-Fateh.