Ilves vs Lahti Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Ilves 3-1 Lahti.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Ilves, 32% draw, 32% Lahti — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ilves at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ilves vs Lahti
Line-ups
- 12F. KrkalicG
- 13K. WalliusM
- 24V. KumpuD
- 5S. VaisanenD
- 3M. RaleD
- 6Y. RaapD
- 14A. PopovitchM
- 22O. MultalaM
- 8M. StjopinM
- 9T. HytonenF
- 45E. TamminenF
- 31R. LeislahtiG
- 16T. MiettunenD
- 19G. BambaM
- 27F. KouakouD
- 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
- 28J. KiloM
- 33Y. SackoM
- 17S. BaranovM
- 11H. CoulibalyF
- 31O. MaukonenG
- 7D. HeikkinenM
- 5N. Gianini DantasD
- 6V. VehkonenD
- 25T. InkinenD
- 8C. MontielM
- 18Y. CassubieM
- 14E. AnderssonM
- 77M. SarrF
- 9A. LindholmF
- 20J. OjanenM
- 12A. HakalaG
- 2J. LehtonenD
- 3R. SansD
- 11Martim AugustoF
- 28A. KabashiM
- 10O. KoskinenM
- 17A. BelabidF
- 19NeemiasF
Form going into Ilves vs Lahti
Ilves
All competitions we cover
- W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
- L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
- L0-1VPS22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Gnistan17 August 2026
- D1-1HNK Rijeka13 August 2026
Lahti
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Mariehamn8 September 2026
- W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
- W2-1away to SJK21 August 2026
- L1-2KuPS16 August 2026
- D0-0away to Inter Turku9 August 2026
What these results say
- Ilves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ilves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ilves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lahti scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Ilves vs Lahti
- 26 July 2026Ilves 1–0 LahtiFinnish Premier League
- 10 June 2026Ilves 5–2 LahtiSuomen Cup
- 30 May 2026Lahti 5–0 IlvesFinnish Premier League
- 29 June 2024Lahti 2–2 IlvesFinnish Premier League
- 6 April 2024Ilves 0–0 LahtiFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: Ilves and Lahti
Ilves
GoalsAssists
- T. Hytönen91
- J. Kanga43
- E. Tamminen42
Lahti
GoalsAssists
- Martim Ferreira51
- O. Koskinen32
- A. Lindholm30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ilves beat Lahti 3–1. The model had made a win for Ilves its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Tamminen 2' for Ilves, Martim Augusto 74' for Lahti, T. Hytonen (penalty) 80' for Ilves, S. Baranov 90' for Ilves.
How the call on Ilves v Lahti has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 42% / 32% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 36% / 32% / 32%: the biggest move is Ilves's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Ilves win36%▼ −6
- Draw32%=
- Lahti win32%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.