Regular Season - 14 · 29 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne Premier League prediction

Hirnyk Stadium, Kryvyi Rih

Our model says: Kryvbas KR 2–1 Veres Rivne

The model makes it 54% Kryvbas KR, 25% draw, 21% Veres Rivne — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Kryvbas KR 1.95, Veres Rivne 1.01.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to Kryvbas KR: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Kryvbas KR's rating is built from 40 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Veres Rivne's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Kryvbas KR are bottom on 7 points from 10 games; Veres Rivne are 13th on 9 points from 12 games — Premier League.
  • Kryvbas KR have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
  • Veres Rivne have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Polessya.
  • Last 6 meetings: Kryvbas KR 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended Veres Rivne 1–3 Kryvbas KR.

More Ukrainian Premier League predictions

All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne

55%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kryvbas KR win Draw Veres Rivne win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Kryvbas KR first; the other scorelines share the remaining 41%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Kryvbas KR at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne

Kryvbas KR

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi7 November 2026
  • L0-2Dynamo Kyiv2 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Bukovyna25 October 2026
  • L0-3LNZ Cherkasy18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Polessya18 September 2026

Veres Rivne

Premier League

  • L0-2away to Polessya6 November 2026
  • L1-3Chornomorets31 October 2026
  • L0-2Kolos Kovalivka23 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Obolon'-Brovar16 October 2026
  • L0-3Shakhtar Donetsk9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Kryvbas KR did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Kryvbas KR failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kryvbas KR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Veres Rivne did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Veres Rivne conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Veres Rivne failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Kryvbas KR10145816-87
13Veres Rivne12237718-119

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Kryvbas KR

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 34% today

Win 28%
Draw 40%
Defeat 48%

Veres Rivne

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 66% today

Win 54%
Draw 65%
Defeat 71%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne

  • 12 May 2026Veres Rivne 1–3 Kryvbas KRPremier League
  • 23 November 2025Kryvbas KR 2–2 Veres RivnePremier League
  • 22 February 2025Kryvbas KR 0–3 Veres RivnePremier League
  • 18 August 2024Veres Rivne 0–2 Kryvbas KRPremier League
  • 30 March 2024Veres Rivne 0–2 Kryvbas KRPremier League
  • 17 September 2023Kryvbas KR 2–1 Veres RivnePremier League

Leading scorers: Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne

Kryvbas KR

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Veres Rivne

GoalsAssists

  • André Gonçalves22

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Veres Rivne (13th, with Kryvbas KR 16th), while our numbers lean to Kryvbas KR. Kryvbas KR rate 0.65 in attack and 1.91 in defence, Veres Rivne 0.44 and 1.84 (lower is better in defence), so Kryvbas KR have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Kryvbas KR Veres Rivne
0.65 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.44
1.91 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.84
1.95 Model expected goals (this match) 1.01

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kryvbas KR the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Kryvbas KR against 1.01 for Veres Rivne. Kryvbas KR's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.84 for Veres Rivne.

Kryvbas KR carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.14 for Veres Rivne.

How the model reaches 54% for Kryvbas KR to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kryvbas KR to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Kryvbas KR's ratings add 7 points and Veres Rivne's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 54%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Kryvbas KR's ratings51%+7
  4. Veres Rivne's ratings54%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Kryvbas KRVeres Rivne
10Matches12
1W 4D 5LRecord2W 3D 7L
8 0.8 per gameGoals scored7 0.6 per game
16 1.6 per gameGoals conceded18 1.5 per game
1 of 10Clean sheets2 of 12
5 of 10Failed to score6 of 12
1 of 1Penalties scored–
20 2.0 per gameYellow cards30 2.5 per game
1Red cards3
4-1-4-1 4×Usual shape4-4-2 8×

Kryvbas KR at home · Veres Rivne away

5Played6
0W 2D 3LRecord1W 2D 3L
4–12Goals for – against2–6
0 of 5Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Kryvbas KR 10, Veres Rivne 12.

Kryvbas KR scored 040230
Veres Rivne conceded 135323

Kryvbas KR score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Veres Rivne have let in 3 there.

Veres Rivne scored 110212
Kryvbas KR conceded 213153

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Kryvbas KR

  • at Shakhtar Donetsk5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 8%
  • at Karpaty12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 15%
  • vs Zorya Luhansk27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 38%

Veres Rivne

  • vs Livyi Bereh5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
  • vs FC Kharkiv12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
  • at Dynamo Kyiv27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 9%
  • vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 36%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.