Albacete
vs
Tenerife
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Albacete 1–0 Tenerife
The model makes it 40% Albacete, 28% draw, 32% Tenerife — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Albacete 1.47, Tenerife 1.27.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Albacete's rating is built from 55 Segunda División matches and Tenerife's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Albacete are 21st on 10 points from 13 games; Tenerife are 14th on 15 points from 12 games — Segunda División.
- Albacete are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Leganes.
- Tenerife have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FC Andorra.
- Last 6 meetings: Tenerife 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 February 2025, ended Tenerife 3–1 Albacete.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Albacete vs Tenerife
Has the model earned this number?
Albacete at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Albacete vs Tenerife
Albacete
Segunda División
- W3-1away to Leganes7 November 2026
- W2-1Sabadell31 October 2026
- W2-0Eldense25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Gijon17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026
Tenerife
Segunda División
- D2-2FC Andorra2 November 2026
- D1-1away to Sabadell25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II19 October 2026
- D1-1Girona12 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026
What these results say
- Albacete scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Albacete conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Albacete had three goals or more.
- Tenerife did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Albacete vs Tenerife
- 2 February 2025Tenerife 3–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 24 November 2024Albacete 2–1 TenerifeSegunda División
- 14 April 2024Albacete 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 9 September 2023Tenerife 2–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 4 February 2023Tenerife 1–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 9 October 2022Albacete 1–1 TenerifeSegunda División
Leading scorers: Albacete and Tenerife
Albacete
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Tenerife
GoalsAssists
- Enric Gallego81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tenerife (14th, with Albacete 21st), while our numbers lean to Albacete. Albacete rate 0.66 in attack and 1.55 in defence, Tenerife 0.68 and 1.44 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Albacete the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Albacete against 1.27 for Tenerife. Albacete's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.44 for Tenerife.
How the model reaches 40% for Albacete to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Albacete to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Albacete's ratings take away 1 point and Tenerife's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Albacete's ratings42%−1
- Tenerife's ratings40%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Albacete at home · Tenerife away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Albacete 13, Tenerife 12.
Albacete score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Tenerife have let in 5 there.
Tenerife score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Albacete have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Albacete
- at AD Ceuta FC6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- at Almeria13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
- vs Mallorca20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
Tenerife
- vs Eldense6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
- at Valladolid13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.