Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Spartak Moscow.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Krylia Sovetov, 26% draw, 43% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Spartak Moscow at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 80N. KokarevG
- 15N. RasskazovD
- 23N. ChernovD
- 47S. BozhinD
- 2K. PecheninD
- 22Fernando CostanzaM
- 4Y. GorshkovM
- 14N. SaltykovM
- 8M. VityugovM
- 10M. KramaričM
- 11A. RahmanovićF
- 77D. MakarovM
- 18I. LepskiyD
- 5D. OrozD
- 73V. ShitovF
- 67Kazbek MukailovF
- 26J. MarínM
- 97I. AkhmetovM
- 7M. BanjacM
- 72Dani FernándezD
- 98A. MaksimenkoG
- 83Gedson FernandesD
- 3C. WoohD
- 6S. BabićD
- 47R. ZobninD
- 68R. LitvinovM
- 18N. UmyarovM
- 7P. SolariM
- 5E. BarcoM
- 10MarquinhosM
- 9M. UgaldeF
- 40I. SorokinM
- 17V. SausM
- 25D. PrutsevM
- 62P. PolekhF
- 33Víctor ParadaD
- 24Nikita MassalygaM
- 56A. DovbnyaG
- 27I. DmitrievM
- 97D. DenisovD
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
Krylia Sovetov
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv16 September 2026
- W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026
- D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
- W3-0away to Akron23 August 2026
Spartak Moscow
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Fakel16 September 2026
- W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
- D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
- W2-0Zenit23 August 2026
What these results say
- Krylia Sovetov went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 18 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
- 4 July 2026Spartak Moscow 3–2 Krylia SovetovFriendlies Clubs
- 1 May 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 21 September 2025Spartak Moscow 2–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 18 May 2025Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 19 September 2024Spartak Moscow 4–1 Krylia SovetovCup
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow
Krylia Sovetov
GoalsAssists
- A. Rahmanović50
Spartak Moscow
GoalsAssists
- M. Ugalde60
- M. Daku51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Spartak Moscow at 43% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Manfred Ugalde 79' for Spartak Moscow, Martin Kramarič 86' for Krylia Sovetov. Sent off: Aleksandr Maksimenko (Spartak Moscow) 24'. On expected goals it finished 2.59–0.58.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Krylia Sovetov a 11.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.6% after a win, 10.7% after a draw, 13.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.7%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.
For Spartak Moscow the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 67.3% going in: 73.6% after a win, 64.2% after a draw, 60.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 64.2%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Krylia Sovetov v Spartak Moscow has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 31% / 28% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 31% / 26% / 43%: the biggest move is Spartak Moscow's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Krylia Sovetov win31%=
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Spartak Moscow win43%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.