Krylia Sovetov
vs
Spartak Moscow
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Krylia Sovetov 1–2 Spartak Moscow
The model makes it 31% Krylia Sovetov, 28% draw, 41% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Krylia Sovetov 1.34, Spartak Moscow 1.69.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Moscow at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
Krylia Sovetov
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv16 September 2026
- W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026
- D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
- W3-0away to Akron23 August 2026
Spartak Moscow
- W1-0Fakel16 September 2026
- W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
- D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
- W2-0Zenit23 August 2026
What these results say
- Krylia Sovetov went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
- 4 July 2026Spartak Moscow 3–2 Krylia SovetovFriendlies Clubs
- 1 May 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 21 September 2025Spartak Moscow 2–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 18 May 2025Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 19 September 2024Spartak Moscow 4–1 Krylia SovetovCup
- 14 August 2024Krylia Sovetov 0–3 Spartak MoscowCup
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow
Krylia Sovetov
- A. Rahmanović3 goals
Spartak Moscow
- M. Daku3 goals1 assists
- M. Ugalde3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Krylia Sovetov carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.44 for Spartak Moscow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.69 for Spartak Moscow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Krylia Sovetov rate 0.57 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Moscow rate 0.67 and 1.52.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Krylia Sovetov a 0.4% chance of the title and Spartak Moscow 17.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Moscow the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov against 1.69 for Spartak Moscow. Krylia Sovetov's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.52 for Spartak Moscow.