FC Krasnodar
vs
Zenit
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Krasnodar 1–0 Zenit
The model makes it 37% FC Krasnodar, 30% draw, 33% Zenit — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Krasnodar 1.36, Zenit 1.20.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Krasnodar vs Zenit
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Krasnodar at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Krasnodar vs Zenit
FC Krasnodar
- D0-0away to FC Orenburg17 September 2026
- D1-1Akron13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Krylia Sovetov5 September 2026
- W1-0FC Rostov29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dinamo Makhachkala23 August 2026
Zenit
- W3-2away to Baltika16 September 2026
- W2-1Lokomotiv12 September 2026
- L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Spartak Moscow23 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Krasnodar went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Krasnodar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Krasnodar had two goals or fewer.
- Zenit scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zenit conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 | Zenit | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Krasnodar vs Zenit
- 12 April 2026Zenit 1–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 17 February 2026FC Krasnodar 0–1 ZenitFriendlies Clubs
- 6 February 2026FC Krasnodar 3–0 ZenitFriendlies Clubs
- 21 September 2025FC Krasnodar 0–2 ZenitPremier League
- 13 April 2025Zenit 4–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 28 September 2024FC Krasnodar 2–0 ZenitPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Krasnodar and Zenit
FC Krasnodar
- N. Krivtsov3 goals1 assists
- Jubal3 goals
Zenit
- A. Sobolev7 goals2 assists
- M. Glushenkov6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Krasnodar carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.56 for Zenit. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.20 for Zenit. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Krasnodar rate 0.67 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zenit rate 0.74 and 1.32.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Krasnodar a 19.8% chance of the title and Zenit 31.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Krasnodar the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Krasnodar against 1.2 for Zenit. FC Krasnodar's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.32 for Zenit.