10 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

FC Krasnodar vs Zenit Premier League prediction & result

Ozon Arena, Krasnodar
Referee: Inal Tanashev, Russia
Full time2 – 3

Final score: FC Krasnodar 2-3 Zenit.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% FC Krasnodar, 29% draw, 32% Zenit — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Krasnodar at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Krasnodar0%Draw3%Zenit97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Aleksandr Sobolev
Daniil Utkin
19'
31'
Luiz Henrique
Lucas Olaza
31'
40'
⚽Maksim Glushenkovassist: Douglas Santos
Aleksandr Chernikov
45+2'
45+4'
⚽Maksim Glushenkovassist: Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos
🔁Valentin Paltsevout: Ilya Vakhania
45'
50'
Douglas Santos
53'
⚽Aleksandr Sobolevassist: Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos
⚽Joao Batxi
55'
🔁Aleksandr Chernikovout: Magomed Ozdoev
61'
⚽Jhon Cordobaassist: Ilya Vakhania
71'
74'
🔁Artem Karpukasout: Kevin Andrade
•Vitor Tormena
78'
Vitor Tormena
80'
81'
🔁Maksim Glushenkovout: Daniil Kondakov
81'
🔁Luiz Henriqueout: Jhon Jhon
🔁Christianout: Juan Manuel Boselli
82'
🔁Joao Batxiout: Álex Maizon Rodríguez González
83'
🔁Daniil Utkinout: Sergey Petrov
85'
Magomed Ozdoev
90+6'

Match stats — FC Krasnodar vs Zenit

51%Possession49%
14Shots15
5On target7
3Corners3
1.24xG0.94

Goals against chances

FC Krasnodar2 from 1.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
Zenit3 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Krasnodar 4-3-3
  • 1S. AgkatsevG
  • 17V. PaltsevD
  • 3Vítor TormenaD
  • 5JubalD
  • 15L. OlazaD
  • 53A. ChernikovM
  • 8Douglas AugustoM
  • 18ChristianM
  • 47D. UtkinF
  • 9J. CórdobaF
  • 11BatxiF
Substitutes
  • 23J. BoselliF
  • 59A. KhmarinD
  • 16A. KoryakinG
  • 6Kevin PinaM
  • 21M. OzdoevM
  • 98S. PetrovD
  • 2M. RodríguezD
  • 40I. VakhaniaD
  • 10D. VorobjevF
Coach: M. Musaev
Zenit 4-2-3-1
  • 16D. AdamovG
  • 31Gustavo MantuanD
  • 33NinoD
  • 28N. AlipD
  • 3Douglas SantosD
  • 5W. BarriosM
  • 93A. KarpukasM
  • 11Luiz HenriqueM
  • 10M. GlushenkovM
  • 20Pedro HenriqueM
  • 7A. SobolevF
Substitutes
  • 21A. ErokhinM
  • 82S. VolkovD
  • 66R. VegaD
  • 51V. ShilovF
  • 57B. MoskvichevG
  • 61D. KondakovM
  • 15V. KaravaevD
  • 14Jhon JhonM
  • 9Felipe AugustoF
Coach: S. Semak

Form going into FC Krasnodar vs Zenit

FC Krasnodar

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to FC Orenburg17 September 2026
  • D1-1Akron13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Krylia Sovetov5 September 2026
  • W1-0FC Rostov29 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Dinamo Makhachkala23 August 2026

Zenit

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Baltika16 September 2026
  • W2-1Lokomotiv12 September 2026
  • L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Spartak Moscow23 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Krasnodar went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Krasnodar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Krasnodar had two goals or fewer.
  • Zenit scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Zenit conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4FC Krasnodar147522518+726
1Zenit1410133215+1731

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Krasnodar vs Zenit

  • 12 April 2026Zenit 1–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
  • 17 February 2026FC Krasnodar 0–1 ZenitFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 February 2026FC Krasnodar 3–0 ZenitFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 September 2025FC Krasnodar 0–2 ZenitPremier League
  • 13 April 2025Zenit 4–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Krasnodar and Zenit

FC Krasnodar

GoalsAssists

  • J. Córdoba61
  • Batxi53
  • Christian34

Zenit

GoalsAssists

  • M. Glushenkov105
  • A. Sobolev102

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zenit won 3–2 at FC Krasnodar. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Krasnodar at 39% and given a win for Zenit 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Maksim Glushenkov 40' for Zenit, Maksim Glushenkov 45+4' for Zenit, Aleksandr Sobolev 53' for Zenit, Joao Batxi 55' for FC Krasnodar, Jhon Cordoba 71' for FC Krasnodar. Sent off: Vitor Tormena (FC Krasnodar) 80'. On expected goals it finished 1.24–0.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Krasnodar a 30.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 37.2% after a win, 28.2% after a draw, 21.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.2%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.

For Zenit the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 26.9% going in: 35.8% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 19.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.8%, 8.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Krasnodar v Zenit has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is FC Krasnodar's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FC Krasnodar win39%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Zenit win32%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.