10 October 2026, 12:15 UTC

Fakel vs Lokomotiv Premier League prediction & result

Fakel Stadium, Voronezh
Referee: Andrey Prokopov, Russia
Full time0 – 5

Final score: Fakel 0-5 Lokomotiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Fakel, 30% draw, 38% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lokomotiv at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fakel0%Draw1%Lokomotiv99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽Nikolay Titkovassist: Sergey Pinyaev
28'
Danila Godyaev
32'
⚽Nikolay Komlichenkoassist: Zelimkhan Bakaev
36'
Egor Pogostnov
🔁Anton Kovalevout: Aleksandr Koksharov
45'
49'
⚽César Montesassist: Aleksandr Rudenko
62'
🔁Danila Godyaevout: Lucas Fasson
64'
⚽Egor Pogostnovassist: Sergey Pinyaev
🔁Aleksey Sutorminout: Ravil Netfullin
68'
🔁Abdula Bagamaevout: Ilnur Alshin
68'
🔁Maksim Turishchevout: Belajdi Pusi
68'
74'
⚽Nikolay Komlichenkoassist: Zelimkhan Bakaev
75'
🔁Zelimkhan Bakaevout: Vadim Rakov
75'
🔁Sergey Pinyaevout: Ilya Eremeev
85'
🔁Aleksandr Rudenkoout: Mikhail Shchetinin
86'
🔁Sergey Babkinout: Aleksandr Kovalenko

Match stats — Fakel vs Lokomotiv

60%Possession40%
24Shots13
4On target8
12Corners3
2.22xG2.48

Goals against chances

Fakel0 from 2.22 xGless than the chances were worth
Lokomotiv5 from 2.48 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fakel 3-4-3
  • 35V. DorovskikhG
  • 5A. GabaraevD
  • 40ClaytonD
  • 44Y. ZhuravlevD
  • 55D. TodorovićM
  • 97B. MagomedovM
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 17A. KovalevF
  • 7M. TurishchevF
  • 11A. SutorminF
Substitutes
  • 10I. AlshinM
  • 22H. El MahasniD
  • 1D. FrolkinG
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 90A. KoksharovF
  • 27S. MagkeevD
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 96I. ObukhovG
  • 19B. PusiF
Coach: Oleg Vasilenko
Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MitryushkinG
  • 24M. NenakhovD
  • 59E. PogostnovD
  • 23C. MontesD
  • 47D. GodyaevD
  • 18N. TitkovM
  • 6S. BabkinM
  • 19A. RudenkoM
  • 7Z. BakaevM
  • 9S. PinyaevM
  • 27N. KomlichenkoF
Substitutes
  • 14G. DzhikiyaD
  • 16D. VeselovG
  • 88M. ShchetininM
  • 11V. RakovF
  • 5G. NyamsiD
  • 99R. MyalkovskiyF
  • 3Lucas FassonD
  • 22I. LantratovG
  • 8A. KovalenkoM
Coach: M. Galaktionov

Form going into Fakel vs Lokomotiv

Fakel

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Spartak Moscow16 September 2026
  • D2-2Baltika12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
  • L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
  • D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026

Lokomotiv

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Krylia Sovetov16 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Zenit12 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Baltika6 September 2026
  • L0-1Dynamo29 August 2026
  • L2-3away to CSKA Moscow22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Fakel did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Fakel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Fakel141310923-146
15Lokomotiv142571621-511

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fakel vs Lokomotiv

  • 11 May 2025Fakel 0–1 LokomotivPremier League
  • 9 November 2024Lokomotiv 2–1 FakelPremier League
  • 18 May 2024Lokomotiv Moscow 2–0 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 30 July 2023Fakel Voronezh 1–4 Lokomotiv MoscowPremier League
  • 20 May 2023Lokomotiv Moscow 1–0 Fakel VoronezhPremier League

Leading scorers: Fakel and Lokomotiv

Fakel

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Lokomotiv

GoalsAssists

  • N. Titkov31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lokomotiv won 5–0 at Fakel. The model had made a win for Lokomotiv its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Nikolay Titkov 25' for Lokomotiv, Nikolay Komlichenko 32' for Lokomotiv, César Montes 49' for Lokomotiv, Egor Pogostnov 64' for Lokomotiv, Nikolay Komlichenko 74' for Lokomotiv. On expected goals it finished 2.22–2.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fakel a 60.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 51.6% after a win, 63.2% after a draw, 68.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.2%, 7.5 points higher than before the match.

For Lokomotiv the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.5% going in: 10.3% after a win, 16.9% after a draw, 21.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.3%, 6.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.