Austria Vienna
vs
Sturm Graz
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Austria Vienna 0–1 Sturm Graz
The model makes it 31% Austria Vienna, 30% draw, 39% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Austria Vienna 1.14, Sturm Graz 1.45.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sturm Graz at 39% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
- D2-2away to Grazer AK19 September 2026
- W2-1Austria Lustenau13 September 2026
- L0-1WSG Wattens2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Red Bull Salzburg30 August 2026
- W2-0away to TSV Hartberg16 August 2026
Sturm Graz
- L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg20 September 2026
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
What these results say
- Austria Vienna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Vienna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
- 26 April 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 15 March 2026Austria Vienna 2–5 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 14 December 2025Austria Vienna 3–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 14 September 2025Sturm Graz 0–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 27 April 2025Sturm Graz 0–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 23 April 2025Austria Vienna 2–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
Leading scorers: Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
- M. Fischer2 goals1 assists
- J. Hettwer2 goals
Sturm Graz
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Austria Vienna carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.54 for Sturm Graz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Austria Vienna and 1.45 for Sturm Graz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Vienna rate 0.57 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sturm Graz rate 0.66 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Austria Vienna a 0% chance of the title and Sturm Graz 0.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Austria Vienna against 1.45 for Sturm Graz. Austria Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.23 for Sturm Graz.