Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Austria Vienna 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Austria Vienna, 28% draw, 42% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sturm Graz at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. Şahin-RadlingerG
- 46J. HandlD
- 15A. DragovićD
- 3I. BuhariD
- 40Daniel NnodimM
- 5V. MüllerM
- 6Philipp MaybachM
- 26R. RanftlM
- 10S. SaljicM
- 30M. FischerM
- 19J. EggesteinF
- 20J. HettwerF
- 21Matteo SchablasM
- 99M. KosG
- 22F. WustingerM
- 7V. MarkovicM
- 17Lee Tae-SeokD
- 16Lee Kang-HeeM
- 14K. BoatengF
- 4J. FeddersenD
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 23A. MalicD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 30P. KollerD
- 27L. BalboD
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 19S. SeidlM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 14O. DiakitéF
- 11A. KayomboF
- 40J. HalwachsM
- 6G. HaiderD
- 35N. GeyrhoferD
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 17S. WłodarczykF
- 22A. HelacG
Form going into Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Grazer AK19 September 2026
- W2-1Austria Lustenau13 September 2026
- L0-1WSG Wattens2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Red Bull Salzburg30 August 2026
- D0-0SC Braga27 August 2026
Sturm Graz
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg20 September 2026
- D0-0Rennes16 September 2026
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
What these results say
- Austria Vienna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Vienna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Austria Vienna | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
- 26 April 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 15 March 2026Austria Vienna 2–5 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 14 December 2025Austria Vienna 3–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 14 September 2025Sturm Graz 0–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 27 April 2025Sturm Graz 0–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
Leading scorers: Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sturm Graz won 2–0 at Austria Vienna. The model had made a win for Sturm Graz its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Oumar Diakité 45+1' for Sturm Graz, Oumar Diakité (penalty) 55' for Sturm Graz. On expected goals it finished 1.96–2.52.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Austria Vienna a 20.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.0% after a win, 20.2% after a draw, 25.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.4%, 5 points higher than before the match.
For Sturm Graz the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 75.1% going in: 82.8% after a win, 73.7% after a draw, 66.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.8%, 7.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Austria Vienna v Sturm Graz has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 31% / 30% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is Sturm Graz's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Austria Vienna win30%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Sturm Graz win42%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.