Sunderland vs Brighton Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Sunderland 0-2 Brighton.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Sunderland, 25% draw, 49% Brighton — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Brighton at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sunderland vs Brighton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22R. RoefsG
- 32T. HumeD
- 20N. MukieleD
- 4K. DansoD
- 17ReinildoD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 27N. SadikiM
- 12T. MeunierM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 18W. IsidorF
- 15O. AldereteD
- 50J. AnguloF
- 37J. BiF
- 31M. EllborgG
- 39M. FofanaF
- 6D. MethalieD
- 13L. O'NienM
- 11C. RiggM
- 7C. TalbiF
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 24F. KadıoğluD
- 44L. VuškovićD
- 4P. StruijkD
- 21O. BoscagliD
- 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
- 13P. GroßM
- 25D. GómezM
- 26Y. AyariM
- 29M. De CuyperM
- 19C. KostoulasF
- 23J. SteeleG
- 10G. RutterF
- 15I. OsmanF
- 33M. O'RileyM
- 20CostinhaD
- 3J. HadjamD
- 5L. DunkD
- 12P. DavidF
- 35M. YalcouyéM
Form going into Sunderland vs Brighton
Sunderland
All competitions we cover
- L3-5away to Manchester City20 September 2026
- W1-0AZ Alkmaar16 September 2026
- L0-2Arsenal12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
Brighton
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Arsenal19 September 2026
- W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
- W4-0Tromso27 August 2026
What these results say
- Sunderland scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sunderland had two goals or fewer.
- Brighton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Brighton had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Brighton
- 14 March 2026Sunderland 0–1 BrightonPremier League
- 20 December 2025Brighton 0–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 23 August 2011Brighton 1–0 SunderlandLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Brighton
Sunderland
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß44
- C. Kostoulas32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brighton won 2–0 at Sunderland. The model had made a win for Brighton its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Maxim De Cuyper 53' for Brighton, Jaouen Hadjam 90+3' for Brighton. Sent off: Pascal Struijk (Brighton) 57'. On expected goals it finished 0.68–1.14.
How the call on Sunderland v Brighton has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is Brighton's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sunderland win26%▼ −1
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Brighton win49%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.