Sunderland
vs
Brighton
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Sunderland 1–2 Brighton
The model makes it 27% Sunderland, 27% draw, 46% Brighton — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.24, Brighton 1.95.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sunderland vs Brighton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 46% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sunderland vs Brighton
Sunderland
- L3-5away to Manchester City20 September 2026
- L0-2Arsenal12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich22 August 2026
Brighton
- W3-0Arsenal19 September 2026
- W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
- W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sunderland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sunderland scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sunderland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brighton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Brighton had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Brighton
- 14 March 2026Sunderland 0–1 BrightonPremier League
- 20 December 2025Brighton 0–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 23 August 2011Brighton 1–0 SunderlandLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Brighton
Sunderland
- B. Brobbey3 goals
Brighton
- P. Groß3 goals3 assists
- C. Kostoulas2 goals1 assists
- M. Yalcouyé2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sunderland carry a model rating of 6.81 against 7.11 for Brighton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Sunderland and 1.95 for Brighton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sunderland rate 0.95 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brighton rate 1.38 and 0.82.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sunderland against 1.95 for Brighton. Sunderland's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.38/0.82 for Brighton.