Orgryte IS
vs
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 7% Orgryte IS, 12% draw, 81% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 14.29, 8.33 and 1.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-3 (8%).
Expected goals: Orgryte IS 0.97, Hammarby FF 3.29.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Orgryte IS
- D1-1Halmstad22 August 2026
- L1-3away to IF Brommapojkarna16 August 2026
- L3-4AIK Stockholm8 August 2026
- W3-0away to AIK Stockholm2 August 2026
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK24 July 2026
Hammarby FF
- W4-0away to Kalmar FF16 August 2026
- W3-0BK Hacken9 August 2026
- D1-1away to IF Brommapojkarna26 July 2026
- W4-0Degerfors IF19 July 2026
- W2-0Kalmar FF12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 14 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 15 | +25 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Orgryte IS
- N. Christoffersson8 goals
Hammarby FF
- P. Abraham10 goals3 assists
- V. Lind7 goals7 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Orgryte IS carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.87 for Hammarby FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Orgryte IS L-W-L-L-D; Hammarby FF W-W-D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Orgryte IS and 3.29 for Hammarby FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orgryte IS rate 0.51 in attack and 2.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hammarby FF rate 1.06 and 1.01.
That points to 80% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-3 (8%), 1-3 (8%), 0-2 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Orgryte IS a 0% chance of the title and Hammarby FF 15.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Orgryte IS against 3.29 for Hammarby FF. Orgryte IS's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.01 for Hammarby FF.