IF Brommapojkarna
vs
IF Elfsborg
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 32% IF Brommapojkarna, 27% draw, 41% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: IF Brommapojkarna 1.20, IF Elfsborg 1.40.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
IF Brommapojkarna
- W3-1Orgryte IS16 August 2026
- D2-2away to Sirius10 August 2026
- L1-2Malmo FF2 August 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF26 July 2026
- L1-2away to IFK Goteborg17 July 2026
IF Elfsborg
- W3-0Vasteras SK FK14 August 2026
- W1-0away to Mjallby AIF8 August 2026
- W2-1away to Malmo FF26 July 2026
- L1-3Sirius19 July 2026
- L0-1away to Gais12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | IF Brommapojkarna | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 21 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
IF Brommapojkarna carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.57 for IF Elfsborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): IF Brommapojkarna L-D-L-D-W; IF Elfsborg L-L-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.40 for IF Elfsborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IF Brommapojkarna rate 0.53 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IF Elfsborg rate 0.68 and 1.20.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IF Elfsborg the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.2 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.4 for IF Elfsborg. IF Brommapojkarna's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.2 for IF Elfsborg.