Kauno Žalgiris vs Beşiktaş UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Kauno Žalgiris 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Before kick-off the model made it 8% Kauno Žalgiris, 15% draw, 77% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 12.50, 6.67 and 1.30. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beşiktaş at 77% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kauno Žalgiris vs Beşiktaş
Line-ups
- 22D. MikelionisG
- 45J. MoutachyD
- 77R. LekiatasD
- 23A. HernandezD
- 37N. Iyobosa EdokpolorD
- 8Y. KarashimaM
- 70F. OuregaM
- 17I. FiolicM
- 20A. KalikM
- 15Leo RibeiroM
- 27G. DebeljuhF
- 55T. SvedkauskasG
- 33M. KonatarD
- 62L. I. KastratiD
- 14V. SlivkaM
- 32F. BaldassarraM
- 10G. SirgedasM
- 7A. BenchaibF
- 19Renan OliveiraF
- 9L. KrekovicM
- 1A. NubelG
- 29I. FakiliM
- 53E. TopcuD
- 35T. DjaloD
- 62M. MurilloD
- 11K. OuattaraD
- 6S. OzcanM
- 15J. OlaitanM
- 18V. CernyM
- 28D. VlahovicF
- 8K. Kayra YilmazM
- 80D. AlemdarG
- 12E. AgbadouD
- 22T. BulutD
- 58Y. OzcanD
- 33R. YilmazD
- 4W. NdidiM
- 5A. HadziahmetovicM
- 10O. KokcuM
- 7M. RashicaM
Form going into Kauno Žalgiris vs Beşiktaş
Kauno Žalgiris
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş20 August 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Zagreb11 August 2026
- L0-5away to Dinamo Zagreb4 August 2026
- W1-0KI Klaksvik29 July 2026
- D0-0away to KI Klaksvik21 July 2026
Beşiktaş
- W3-0Kauno Žalgiris20 August 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové13 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hradec Králové6 August 2026
What these results say
- Kauno Žalgiris failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Kauno Žalgiris and Beşiktaş in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Beşiktaş | UEFA Europa League | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Kauno Žalgiris has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · UEFA Europa League
Head-to-head: Kauno Žalgiris vs Beşiktaş
- 20 August 2026Beşiktaş 3–0 Kauno ŽalgirisUEFA Europa League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Kauno Žalgiris and Beşiktaş
Kauno Žalgiris
No leading scorers listed yet.
Beşiktaş
- V. Černý1 goal
- I. Fakili1 goal
- A. Murillo1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.