Lillestrom
vs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 62% Lillestrom, 20% draw, 18% Egnatia Rrogozhinë — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Lillestrom 2.38, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.24.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lillestrom
- L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026
- L0-4away to Bodo/Glimt31 July 2026
- L1-2Viking22 July 2026
- W2-1KFUM Oslo18 July 2026
- W2-0away to Fredrikstad11 July 2026
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
The two sides
Lillestrom carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.4 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lillestrom W-W-L-L-L; Egnatia Rrogozhinë D-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.38 goals for Lillestrom and 1.24 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lillestrom rate 0.72 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Egnatia Rrogozhinë rate 0.70 and 1.75.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lillestrom the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Lillestrom against 1.24 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Lillestrom's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.75 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë.