Témouchent
vs
MB Rouisset
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Témouchent 0-2 MB Rouisset.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Témouchent, 31% draw, 38% MB Rouisset — fair odds of 3.23, 3.23 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Témouchent 0.99, MB Rouisset 1.18.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Model insights: Témouchent vs MB Rouisset
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MB Rouisset at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Témouchent vs MB Rouisset
Témouchent
- L0-1away to MC Alger9 October 2026
- W1-0JS Kabylie17 September 2026
- L0-2away to MC Oran11 September 2026
- D1-1CS Constantine5 September 2026
MB Rouisset
- W1-0USM Alger8 October 2026
- L0-2away to MC Alger18 September 2026
- W2-0Olympique Akbou12 September 2026
- L0-1away to JS Kabylie4 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Témouchent had two goals or fewer.
- Témouchent failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Témouchent conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for MB Rouisset had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Témouchent | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 | MB Rouisset | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Témouchent vs MB Rouisset
- 14 October 2026Témouchent 0–2 MB RouissetLigue 1
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.99 goals for Témouchent and 1.18 for MB Rouisset; the game produced 0 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: H. Fatawu 30' (MB Rouisset), A. K. Amqran 74' (MB Rouisset).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MB Rouisset the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Témouchent against 1.18 for MB Rouisset. Témouchent's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.56 for MB Rouisset.