Al Sadd
vs
Al-Hilal
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al Sadd 1–2 Al-Hilal
The model makes it 27% Al Sadd, 24% draw, 49% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 3.70, 4.17 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Al Sadd 1.62, Al-Hilal 2.57.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Sadd are 15th on 0 points from 1 game; Al-Hilal are 4th on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al Sadd are unbeaten in their last 4 (4 won), most recently a 6-3 win away to Al-Sailiya.
- Al-Hilal have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 6-0 win away to Al Taawon.
- Last 5 meetings: Al Sadd 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2026, ended Al-Hilal 3–3 Al Sadd.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Sadd vs Al-Hilal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Hilal
Al Sadd
- L0-3away to Esteghlal FC14 September 2026
Al-Hilal
- W2-1Al-Gharafa15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al-Hilal
- 13 April 2026Al-Hilal 3–3 Al SaddAFC Champions League Elite
- 21 October 2025Al-Hilal 3–1 Al SaddAFC Champions League Elite
- 26 November 2024Al Sadd 1–1 Al-HilalAFC Champions League Elite
- 30 July 2023Al-Hilal 2–3 Al SaddArab Club Champions Cup
- 22 October 2019Al-Hilal 2–4 Al SaddAFC Champions League
The two sides
Al Sadd carry a model rating of 6.66 against 7.06 for Al-Hilal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Al Sadd and 2.57 for Al-Hilal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Sadd rate 1.05 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Hilal rate 1.28 and 0.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al Sadd against 2.57 for Al-Hilal. Al Sadd's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.28/0.84 for Al-Hilal.
Season stats
Al Sadd at home · Al-Hilal away
League matches only, this season — Al Sadd in the Stars League, Al-Hilal in the Pro League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Al Sadd 4 in the Stars League, Al-Hilal 7 in the Pro League.
Al Sadd score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Al-Hilal have let in 0 there.
Al-Hilal score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Al Sadd have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Sadd
- vs Al-Duhail SC16 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 45%
- at Al Shahaniya22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 55%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 18%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 35%
Al-Hilal
- at Al Riyadh16 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 66%
- vs Al-Hazm19 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 65%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC23 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 42%
- at Al Shamal27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.