Al-Ittihad
vs
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al-Ittihad 2–1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
The model makes it 44% Al-Ittihad, 28% draw, 28% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Ittihad 1.79, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.20.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Ittihad are 7th on 1 point from 1 game; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 5th on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Ittihad are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Al-Faisaly FC.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Dubai United.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ittihad at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Al-Ittihad
- D1-1away to Al Shamal14 September 2026
- W4-1away to Al-Jazira11 August 2026
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- W1-0Tractor Sazi14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al-Ittihad | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- 30 September 2025Al-Ittihad 0–1 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiAFC Champions League Elite
Leading scorers: Al-Ittihad and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Al-Ittihad
- G. Wijnaldum1 goal
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Ittihad carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.68 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Al-Ittihad and 1.20 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Ittihad rate 0.84 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai rate 0.83 and 1.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ittihad the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al-Ittihad against 1.20 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Al-Ittihad's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.16 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Season stats
Al-Ittihad at home · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ittihad 7, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5.
Al-Ittihad score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have let in 0 there.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Al-Ittihad have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Ittihad
- vs Al Shabab16 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 49%
- at Al-Ettifaq20 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- vs Al Diriyah23 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Neftchi Fergana26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 45%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- vs Al Ain17 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 35%
- vs Esteghlal FC27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 52%
- vs Al-Ittihad Kalba30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 60%
- at Al-Hilal3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 16%
- at Sharjah FC7 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.