Công An Nhân Dân
vs
Kashima
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Công An Nhân Dân 0–1 Kashima
The model makes it 28% Công An Nhân Dân, 29% draw, 43% Kashima — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Công An Nhân Dân 1.11, Kashima 1.67.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Công An Nhân Dân are 15th on 0 points from 1 game; Kashima are top on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Kashima have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vissel Kobe.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Công An Nhân Dân vs Kashima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kashima at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Công An Nhân Dân vs Kashima
Công An Nhân Dân
- L1-4away to Gamba Osaka15 September 2026
- W2-0away to Adelaide United11 August 2026
Kashima
- W7-1Newcastle Jets15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Công An Nhân Dân | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Kashima | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Công An Nhân Dân and Kashima
Công An Nhân Dân
- B. Perea1 goal
Kashima
- A. Čavrić3 goals
- H. Tokuda2 goals1 assist
- K. Tagawa1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Công An Nhân Dân carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.73 for Kashima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Công An Nhân Dân and 1.67 for Kashima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Công An Nhân Dân rate 0.60 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kashima rate 0.78 and 1.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kashima the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Công An Nhân Dân against 1.67 for Kashima. Công An Nhân Dân's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.01 for Kashima.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Công An Nhân Dân
- at SHANGHAI SIPG27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 26%
- vs Kyoto Sanga3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 39%
- vs Vissel Kobe24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- at Kashiwa Reysol1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 19%
- vs Beijing Guoan9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 39%
Kashima
- vs Pohang Steelers28 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 56%
- at Buriram United4 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
- vs Jeonbuk Motors25 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 48%
- at Port FC2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 50%
- at Daejeon Citizen9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.