Krasava Ypsonas
vs
Karmiotissa
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Krasava Ypsonas 1–0 Karmiotissa
The model makes it 37% Krasava Ypsonas, 31% draw, 32% Karmiotissa — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Krasava Ypsonas 1.24, Karmiotissa 1.06.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Krasava Ypsonas are bottom on 0 points from 4 games; Karmiotissa are 12th on 3 points from 4 games — 1. Division.
- Krasava Ypsonas have not won in their last 4, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Omonia Nicosia.
- Karmiotissa have not won in their last 4, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Aris.
- Last 3 meetings: Karmiotissa 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 October 2022, ended Karmiotissa 3–2 Krasava Ypsonas.
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Krasava Ypsonas vs Karmiotissa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Krasava Ypsonas at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Krasava Ypsonas vs Karmiotissa
Krasava Ypsonas
- L1-4away to Omonia Nicosia20 September 2026
- L0-1Aris14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Omonia Aradippou5 September 2026
- L0-3Omonia 29is Maiou28 August 2026
Karmiotissa
- D0-0away to Aris20 September 2026
- D1-1Omonia Aradippou12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Omonia 29is Maiou4 September 2026
- L0-3Pafos30 August 2026
What these results say
- Krasava Ypsonas did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Krasava Ypsonas conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Krasava Ypsonas had three goals or more.
- Karmiotissa did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Karmiotissa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Krasava Ypsonas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Krasava Ypsonas vs Karmiotissa
- 19 October 2022Karmiotissa 3–2 Krasava YpsonasCup
- 25 January 2020Karmiotissa 3–1 Krasava Ypsonas2. Division
- 23 November 2019Krasava Ypsonas 0–1 Karmiotissa2. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Krasava Ypsonas carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.4 for Karmiotissa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Krasava Ypsonas and 1.06 for Karmiotissa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Krasava Ypsonas rate 0.55 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Karmiotissa rate 0.55 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Karmiotissa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Krasava Ypsonas the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Krasava Ypsonas against 1.06 for Karmiotissa. Krasava Ypsonas's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.39 for Karmiotissa.
Season stats
Krasava Ypsonas at home · Karmiotissa away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Krasava Ypsonas 4, Karmiotissa 4.
Karmiotissa score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Krasava Ypsonas have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Krasava Ypsonas
- at Olympiakos24 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 22%
- vs AEK Larnaca31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 22%
- at AEL7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 26%
- vs Anorthosis23 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 37%
Karmiotissa
- vs Apollon Limassol25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- vs Olympiakos30 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 34%
- at AEK Larnaca7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 16%
- vs AEL22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.