Karlsruher SC
vs
Energie Cottbus
2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Karlsruher SC 0-3 Energie Cottbus.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Karlsruher SC, 28% draw, 31% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Karlsruher SC 1.72, Energie Cottbus 1.33.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Karlsruher SC at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus
Karlsruher SC
- D2-2away to Hannover 964 September 2026
- L2-5VfL Wolfsburg29 August 2026
- D0-0away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern15 August 2026
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld8 August 2026
Energie Cottbus
- D4-4away to VfL Wolfsburg5 September 2026
- L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arminia Bielefeld16 August 2026
- W3-1Hannover 969 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Karlsruher SC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus
- 17 March 2019Energie Cottbus 0–2 Karlsruher SC3. Liga
- 29 September 2018Karlsruher SC 2–0 Energie Cottbus3. Liga
- 15 March 2014Energie Cottbus 1–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 20 September 2013Karlsruher SC 2–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
- 17 February 2012Karlsruher SC 2–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
- 21 August 2011Energie Cottbus 2–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Karlsruher SC and Energie Cottbus
Karlsruher SC
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Energie Cottbus
- T. Ciğerci4 goals1 assists
- J. Butler2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Karlsruher SC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.52 for Energie Cottbus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.33 for Energie Cottbus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Karlsruher SC rate 0.71 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Energie Cottbus rate 0.76 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Energie Cottbus, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Karlsruher SC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Karlsruher SC against 1.33 for Energie Cottbus. Karlsruher SC's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.49 for Energie Cottbus.