1. FC Heidenheim
vs
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 Holstein Kiel.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% 1. FC Heidenheim, 26% draw, 21% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.13, Holstein Kiel 0.90.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
1. FC Heidenheim
- W1-0away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 September 2026
- W5-3Dynamo Dresden29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Hertha BSC15 August 2026
- W4-3VfL Osnabrück8 August 2026
Holstein Kiel
- D2-21. FC Nürnberg5 September 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
- D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
- 16 March 20251. FC Heidenheim 3–1 Holstein KielBundesliga
- 2 November 2024Holstein Kiel 1–0 1. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
- 23 April 2023FC Heidenheim 3–0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 16 October 2022Holstein Kiel 3–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 23 April 2022Holstein Kiel 1–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 21 November 2021FC Heidenheim 2–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel
1. FC Heidenheim
- J. Schöppner3 goals
Holstein Kiel
- P. Harres3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
1. FC Heidenheim carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.5 for Holstein Kiel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0.90 for Holstein Kiel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Heidenheim rate 0.94 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Holstein Kiel rate 0.69 and 1.39.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Heidenheim the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim against 0.9 for Holstein Kiel. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.39 for Holstein Kiel.