1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 Holstein Kiel.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% 1. FC Heidenheim, 26% draw, 21% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 53% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
Line-ups
- 33T. DähneG
- 2M. BuschD
- 6P. MainkaD
- 19J. FöhrenbachD
- 27M. HeuleD
- 22O. MhamdiM
- 16J. NiehuesM
- 3J. SchöppnerM
- 24M. CostlyM
- 18A. VogtF
- 17M. HonsakF
- 38Y. WagnerF
- 41M. ZrilicM
- 10C. ContehF
- 1Frank FellerG
- 8P. HennrichM
- 29M. KaufmannF
- 20L. KerberM
- 23L. PaqaradaD
- 4T. SierslebenD
- 1T. WeinerG
- 32H. SekineD
- 13I. NekićD
- 26D. ZecD
- 40Leon ParduziD
- 28J. MeffertM
- 20A. KaprálikM
- 8G. BalziM
- 27I. UgohM
- 10J. TherkelsenM
- 19P. HarresF
- 5N. MadsenD
- 44Mark Richter MonserratM
- 41Lio RothenhagenG
- 7S. SkrzybskiF
- 3Niko Takahashi CendagortaD
- 30T. TasdelenM
- 47J. TolkinD
- 43T. WieseM
- 11G. de RegtF
Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
1. FC Heidenheim
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 September 2026
- W5-3Dynamo Dresden29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Hertha BSC15 August 2026
- W4-3VfL Osnabrück8 August 2026
Holstein Kiel
All competitions we cover
- D2-21. FC Nürnberg5 September 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
- D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Heidenheim scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 1. FC Heidenheim won 3 of these 4 matches.
- 1. FC Heidenheim conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Holstein Kiel did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Holstein Kiel conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Holstein Kiel scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
- 16 March 20251. FC Heidenheim 3–1 Holstein KielBundesliga
- 2 November 2024Holstein Kiel 1–0 1. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
- 23 April 2023FC Heidenheim 3–0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 16 October 2022Holstein Kiel 3–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 23 April 2022Holstein Kiel 1–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel
1. FC Heidenheim
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
1. FC Heidenheim beat Holstein Kiel 1–0. The model had made a win for 1. FC Heidenheim its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Jonas Föhrenbach 83' for 1. FC Heidenheim. Sent off: Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen (Holstein Kiel) 50'.