13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Amed vs Başakşehir Süper Lig prediction & result

Diyarbakir Stadium
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Amed 5-0 Başakşehir.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Amed, 27% draw, 34% Başakşehir — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Amed at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
C. Operi
⚽E. Bayram (OG)
45+1'
46'
🔁O. Sahinerout: M. Karbownik
46'
🔁A. Skov Olsenout: Y. Sari
46'
🔁J. Kaluzinskiout: B. Yildirim
⚽G. Orban
51'
53'
U. Gunes
⚽G. Orbanassist: E. Krasniqi
55'
E. Krasniqi
59'
🔁M. Khalilout: A. Cisse
63'
63'
🔁A. Fayzullaevout: I. Brnic
⚽G. Orbanassist: E. Krasniqi
74'
🔁E. Krasniqiout: A. T. Bulbul
79'
🔁G. Orbanout: M. Diagne
79'
82'
🔁E. Shomurodovout: B. Ozcan
⚽M. Diagneassist: R. Raveloson
83'
🔁F. Soyalpout: C. Ustundag
84'
🔁S. Balletout: R. Lutin
85'

Match stats — Amed vs Başakşehir

43%Possession57%
18Shots7
5On target1
2Corners3
3.65xG0.32

Goals against chances

Amed5 from 3.65 xGmore than the chances were worth
Başakşehir0 from 0.32 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Amed 4-2-3-1
  • 40Alban LafontG
  • 7Ermal KrasniqiD
  • 5Lumbardh DellovaD
  • 4David Robert BatesD
  • 17Umut MeraşD
  • 22Rayan RavelosonM
  • 8Furkan SoyalpM
  • 10Samuel BalletM
  • 91Dia SabaM
  • 74Mohamed KhalilM
  • 99Gift OrbanF
Substitutes
  • 33Amadou CisséD
  • 27Burak BozanG
  • 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
  • 21Mehmet YeşilD
  • 81Ali Turap BülbülD
  • 3Miraç AcerD
  • 6Cem ÜstündagM
  • 93Rayan LutinM
  • 45Mbaye DiagneF
Coach: Besnik Hasi
Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
  • 98Deniz DilmenG
  • 42Ömer Ali ŞahinerD
  • 23Emin BayramD
  • 3Jerome OpokuD
  • 21Christopher OperiD
  • 18Jakub KałuzińskiM
  • 20Umut GüneşM
  • 70Andreas Skov OlsenM
  • 8Olivier KemenM
  • 11Abbosbek FayzullaevM
  • 14Eldor ShomurodovF
Substitutes
  • 33Michał KarbownikD
  • 7Yusuf SarıF
  • 91Bertuğ YıldırımF
  • 77Ivan BrnićF
  • 1Volkan BabacanG
  • 38Saba KharebashviliD
  • 27Ousseynou BaD
  • 4Onur ErgünM
  • 19Berkay ÖzcanM
Coach: Nuri Sahin

Form going into Amed vs Başakşehir

Amed

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Kasımpaşa6 September 2026
  • W2-1Trabzonspor31 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Kocaelispor24 August 2026
  • W3-0Erzurumspor FK16 August 2026

Başakşehir

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Galatasaray4 September 2026
  • D1-1Kasımpaşa30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Trabzonspor23 August 2026
  • W2-0Kocaelispor16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Inter Turku30 July 2026

What these results say

  • Amed scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Amed conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Amed had three goals or more.
  • Başakşehir failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Başakşehir scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Başakşehir conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Amed96212010+1020
12Başakşehir93241214-211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Amed vs Başakşehir

  • 28 January 2016Başakşehir 2–2 AmedTürkiye Kupası
  • 23 December 2015Amed 2–2 BaşakşehirTürkiye Kupası

Leading scorers: Amed and Başakşehir

Amed

GoalsAssists

  • G. Orban83
  • D. Sabia51

Başakşehir

GoalsAssists

  • E. Shomurodov71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Amed beat Başakşehir 5–0. The model had made a win for Amed its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: E. Bayram (own goal) 45+1' for Amed, G. Orban 51' for Amed, G. Orban 55' for Amed, G. Orban 74' for Amed, M. Diagne 83' for Amed. On expected goals it finished 3.65–0.32.

How the call on Amed v Başakşehir has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is Amed's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Amed win39%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Başakşehir win34%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.