Amed
vs
Başakşehir
Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Amed 5-0 Başakşehir.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Amed, 26% draw, 28% Başakşehir — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Amed 2.04, Başakşehir 1.32.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Amed vs Başakşehir
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amed at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Amed vs Başakşehir
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Alban LafontG
- 7Ermal KrasniqiD
- 5Lumbardh DellovaD
- 4David Robert BatesD
- 17Umut MeraşD
- 22Rayan RavelosonM
- 8Furkan SoyalpM
- 10Samuel BalletM
- 91Dia SabaM
- 74Mohamed KhalilM
- 99Gift OrbanF
- 33Amadou CisséD
- 27Burak BozanG
- 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
- 21Mehmet YeşilD
- 81Ali Turap BülbülD
- 3Miraç AcerD
- 6Cem ÜstündagM
- 93Rayan LutinM
- 45Mbaye DiagneF
- 98Deniz DilmenG
- 42Ömer Ali ŞahinerD
- 23Emin BayramD
- 3Jerome OpokuD
- 21Christopher OperiD
- 18Jakub KałuzińskiM
- 20Umut GüneşM
- 70Andreas Skov OlsenM
- 8Olivier KemenM
- 11Abbosbek FayzullaevM
- 14Eldor ShomurodovF
- 33Michał KarbownikD
- 7Yusuf SarıF
- 91Bertuğ YıldırımF
- 77Ivan BrnićF
- 1Volkan BabacanG
- 38Saba KharebashviliD
- 27Ousseynou BaD
- 4Onur ErgünM
- 19Berkay ÖzcanM
Form going into Amed vs Başakşehir
Amed
- D2-2away to Kasımpaşa6 September 2026
- W2-1Trabzonspor31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor24 August 2026
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK16 August 2026
Başakşehir
- L2-3Galatasaray4 September 2026
- D1-1Kasımpaşa30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Trabzonspor23 August 2026
- W2-0Kocaelispor16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Amed | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
| 14 | Başakşehir | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Amed vs Başakşehir
- 13 September 2026Amed 5–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 28 January 2016Başakşehir 2–2 AmedTürkiye Kupası
- 23 December 2015Amed 2–2 BaşakşehirTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Amed and Başakşehir
Amed
- G. Orban6 goals1 assists
- D. Sabia2 goals
Başakşehir
- E. Shomurodov4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.04 goals for Amed and 1.32 for Başakşehir; the game produced 5 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: E. Bayram 45' (Amed), G. Orban 51' (Amed), G. Orban 55' (Amed), G. Orban 74' (Amed), M. Diagne 83' (Amed).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amed the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Amed against 1.32 for Başakşehir. Amed's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.23 for Başakşehir.