FC St. Pauli
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC St. Pauli 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC St. Pauli, 29% draw, 33% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 1.44, VfL Wolfsburg 1.24.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Pauli at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg
FC St. Pauli
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld4 September 2026
- L1-21. FC Kaiserslautern30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel14 August 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth9 August 2026
VfL Wolfsburg
- D4-4Energie Cottbus5 September 2026
- W5-2away to Karlsruher SC29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hannover 9616 August 2026
- D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg
- 16 May 2026FC St. Pauli 1–3 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 14 January 2026VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 FC St. PauliBundesliga
- 8 March 2025VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FC St. PauliBundesliga
- 26 October 2024FC St. Pauli 0–0 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 16 April 2011VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 FC St. PauliBundesliga
- 21 November 2010FC St. Pauli 1–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg
FC St. Pauli
- T. Hara2 goals1 assists
VfL Wolfsburg
- F. Reese3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC St. Pauli carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.79 for VfL Wolfsburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.24 for VfL Wolfsburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC St. Pauli rate 0.86 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Wolfsburg rate 0.91 and 1.03.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VfL Wolfsburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC St. Pauli the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FC St. Pauli against 1.24 for VfL Wolfsburg. FC St. Pauli's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.03 for VfL Wolfsburg.