Galatasaray
vs
Kocaelispor
Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Galatasaray 1-0 Kocaelispor.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Galatasaray, 26% draw, 21% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.08, Kocaelispor 0.86.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Galatasaray at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Uğurcan ÇakırG
- 7Roland SallaiD
- 6Davinson SánchezD
- 42Abdülkerim BardakcıD
- 17Eren ElmalıD
- 34Lucas TorreiraM
- 8Gabriel SaraM
- 53Barış Alper YılmazM
- 11Yunus AkgünM
- 27Rafael LeãoM
- 21Deniz GülF
- 83Aleksey BatrakovM
- 24Jankat YılmazG
- 4Ismail JakobsD
- 3El Chadaille BitshiabuD
- 88Kazımcan KarataşD
- 23Kaan AyhanD
- 10Leroy SanéF
- 74Renato NhagaM
- 20İlkay GündoğanM
- 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
- 2Anfernee Jamal DijksteelD
- 4Tanguy ZoukrouD
- 6Matej MaglicaD
- 21Massadio HaïdaraD
- 10Berkan KutluM
- 14ShowM
- 20Mahamadou SusohoM
- 11Gonçalo SousaF
- 97Florian AyéF
- 7Dan AgyeiF
- 32Makana BakuM
- 23Onurcan PiriG
- 22Uğur Kaan YıldızD
- 3Muharrem CinanD
- 5Emir OrtakayaD
- 41Onur ÖztongaD
- 27Ege BilimM
- 26Metehan AltunbaşF
- 75Tayfur BingölD
Form going into Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor
Galatasaray
- W3-2away to Başakşehir4 September 2026
- W3-2Göztepe29 August 2026
- W4-0away to Erzurumspor FK21 August 2026
- D2-2Çorum FK14 August 2026
Kocaelispor
- W1-0Samsunspor6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Konyaspor29 August 2026
- W2-0Amed24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Başakşehir16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 6 | Kocaelispor | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor
- 13 September 2026Galatasaray 1–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 12 April 2026Galatasaray 1–1 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 9 November 2025Kocaelispor 1–0 GalatasaraySüper Lig
Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Kocaelispor
Galatasaray
- V. Osimhen6 goals2 assists
- Gabriel Sara2 goals2 assists
Kocaelispor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.08 goals for Galatasaray and 0.86 for Kocaelispor; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: A. Bardakci 71' (Galatasaray).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Galatasaray the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Galatasaray against 0.86 for Kocaelispor. Galatasaray's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.14 for Kocaelispor.