13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor Süper Lig prediction & result

Rams Park, Istanbul
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Galatasaray 1-0 Kocaelispor.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Galatasaray, 27% draw, 20% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Galatasaray at 53% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Galatasaray98%Draw2%Kocaelispor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•D. Gul
12'
16'
S. Inan
22'
A. Dijksteel
D. Gul
56'
59'
🔁D. Agyeiout: M. Baku
🔁Gabriel Saraout: A. Batrakov
59'
⚽A. Bardakciassist: A. Batrakov
71'
A. Bardakci
72'
🔁D. Gulout: L. Sane
77'
🔁Y. Akgunout: L. Ugochukwu
77'
77'
🔁B. Kutluout: T. Bingol
78'
🔁F. Ayeout: M. Altunbas
🔁E. Elmaliout: I. Jakobs
86'
🔁R. Leaoout: K. Karatas
86'
86'
🔁M. Susohoout: U. Yildiz
86'
🔁T. Zoukrouout: A. Ozyar
R. Sallai
90+4'

Match stats — Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor

61%Possession39%
28Shots11
8On target0
16Corners3
2.4xG0.68

Goals against chances

Galatasaray1 from 2.40 xGless than the chances were worth
Kocaelispor0 from 0.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Galatasaray 4-2-3-1
  • 1Uğurcan ÇakırG
  • 7Roland SallaiD
  • 6Davinson SánchezD
  • 42Abdülkerim BardakcıD
  • 17Eren ElmalıD
  • 34Lucas TorreiraM
  • 8Gabriel SaraM
  • 53Barış Alper YılmazM
  • 11Yunus AkgünM
  • 27Rafael LeãoM
  • 21Deniz GülF
Substitutes
  • 83Aleksey BatrakovM
  • 24Jankat YılmazG
  • 4Ismail JakobsD
  • 3El Chadaille BitshiabuD
  • 88Kazımcan KarataşD
  • 23Kaan AyhanD
  • 10Leroy SanéF
  • 74Renato NhagaM
  • 20İlkay GündoğanM
Coach: Okan Buruk
Kocaelispor 4-3-3
  • 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
  • 2Anfernee Jamal DijksteelD
  • 4Tanguy ZoukrouD
  • 6Matej MaglicaD
  • 21Massadio HaïdaraD
  • 10Berkan KutluM
  • 14ShowM
  • 20Mahamadou SusohoM
  • 11Gonçalo SousaF
  • 97Florian AyéF
  • 7Dan AgyeiF
Substitutes
  • 32Makana BakuM
  • 23Onurcan PiriG
  • 22Uğur Kaan YıldızD
  • 3Muharrem CinanD
  • 5Emir OrtakayaD
  • 41Onur ÖztongaD
  • 27Ege BilimM
  • 26Metehan AltunbaşF
  • 75Tayfur BingölD
Coach: Selcuk Inan

Form going into Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor

Galatasaray

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Sporting CP9 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Başakşehir4 September 2026
  • W3-2Göztepe29 August 2026
  • W4-0away to Erzurumspor FK21 August 2026
  • D2-2Çorum FK14 August 2026

Kocaelispor

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Samsunspor6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Konyaspor29 August 2026
  • W2-0Amed24 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Başakşehir16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Galatasaray scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Galatasaray had three goals or more.
  • Galatasaray conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kocaelispor won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kocaelispor scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Kocaelispor had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Galatasaray97111912+722
7Kocaelispor9504119+215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor

  • 12 April 2026Galatasaray 1–1 KocaelisporSüper Lig
  • 9 November 2025Kocaelispor 1–0 GalatasaraySüper Lig

Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Kocaelispor

Galatasaray

GoalsAssists

  • V. Osimhen83

Kocaelispor

GoalsAssists

  • B. Kutlu41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Galatasaray beat Kocaelispor 1–0. The model had made a win for Galatasaray its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: A. Bardakci 71' for Galatasaray. On expected goals it finished 2.40–0.68.

How the call on Galatasaray v Kocaelispor has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 53% / 27% / 20%: the biggest move is Galatasaray's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Galatasaray win53%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Kocaelispor win20%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.