Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 Kasımpaşa.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 29% draw, 36% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kasımpaşa at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 70İrfan Can EğribayatG
- 13Pedro PereiraD
- 6Dimitris GoutasD
- 2ThalissonD
- 77Abdurrahim DursunD
- 42Ousmane DiabateM
- 14Adama Malouda TraoréM
- 35Oğulcan ÜlgünM
- 10Franco TongyaM
- 7Tiago GouveiaM
- 9Pedro MendesF
- 83Rafael LuisM
- 88Fıratcan ÜzümD
- 20Sekou KoitaF
- 90Metehan BaltacıD
- 48Salih UçanM
- 23Gökhan AkkanG
- 53Ensar ÇavuşoğluD
- 3Yiğit Hamza AydarD
- 12Victor OrakpoF
- 1Andreas GianniotisG
- 2Cláudio WinckD
- 14Kevin MouangaD
- 27Matei IlieD
- 45Ayberk KarapoD
- 51Elson MendesM
- 26Kerem DemirbayM
- 17Jesurun Rak-SakyiM
- 66Emirhan BozM
- 7Ali Yavuz KolM
- 9Adrian BenedyczakF
- 5Jakob JessenD
- 19Marcus RaffertyM
- 50Güven YalçınF
- 11Thiemoko DiarraF
- 4Adem ArousD
- 25Ali Emre YanarG
- 30Ahmet Taha DağbaşıD
- 35Sercan DenizF
- 8Atakan MujdeM
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
All competitions we cover
- L0-5away to Trabzonspor6 September 2026
- D1-1Erzurumspor FK28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Göztepe23 August 2026
- W2-1Fenerbahçe15 August 2026
Kasımpaşa
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Amed6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Başakşehir30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Çorum FK22 August 2026
- D1-1Trabzonspor15 August 2026
What these results say
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kasımpaşa went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Kasımpaşa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Kasımpaşa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 8 |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa
- 24 July 2026Kasımpaşa 3–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Friendlies Clubs
- 9 May 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 12 December 2025Kasımpaşa 0–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 19 December 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 KasımpaşaTürkiye Kupası
- 20 March 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kasımpaşa won 2–1 at Gençlerbirliği S.K.. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Kasımpaşa at 36%. The goals: O. Diabate 23' for Gençlerbirliği S.K., A. Benedyczak 79' for Kasımpaşa, G. Yalcin 90+4' for Kasımpaşa. On expected goals it finished 1.13–1.20.
How the call on Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Kasımpaşa has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. win35%▼ −6
- Draw29%=
- Kasımpaşa win36%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.