Gençlerbirliği S.K.
vs
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 Kasımpaşa.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 29% draw, 37% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.33, Kasımpaşa 1.41.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kasımpaşa at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 70İrfan Can EğribayatG
- 13Pedro PereiraD
- 6Dimitris GoutasD
- 2ThalissonD
- 77Abdurrahim DursunD
- 42Ousmane DiabateM
- 14Adama Malouda TraoréM
- 35Oğulcan ÜlgünM
- 10Franco TongyaM
- 7Tiago GouveiaM
- 9Pedro MendesF
- 83Rafael LuisM
- 88Fıratcan ÜzümD
- 20Sekou KoitaF
- 90Metehan BaltacıD
- 48Salih UçanM
- 23Gökhan AkkanG
- 53Ensar ÇavuşoğluD
- 3Yiğit Hamza AydarD
- 12Victor OrakpoF
- 1Andreas GianniotisG
- 2Cláudio WinckD
- 14Kevin MouangaD
- 27Matei IlieD
- 45Ayberk KarapoD
- 51Elson MendesM
- 26Kerem DemirbayM
- 17Jesurun Rak-SakyiM
- 66Emirhan BozM
- 7Ali Yavuz KolM
- 9Adrian BenedyczakF
- 5Jakob JessenD
- 19Marcus RaffertyM
- 50Güven YalçınF
- 11Thiemoko DiarraF
- 4Adem ArousD
- 25Ali Emre YanarG
- 30Ahmet Taha DağbaşıD
- 35Sercan DenizF
- 8Atakan MujdeM
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- L0-5away to Trabzonspor6 September 2026
- D1-1Erzurumspor FK28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Göztepe23 August 2026
- W2-1Fenerbahçe15 August 2026
Kasımpaşa
- D2-2Amed6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Başakşehir30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Çorum FK22 August 2026
- D1-1Trabzonspor15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
| 4 | Kasımpaşa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa
- 13 September 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 24 July 2026Kasımpaşa 3–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Friendlies Clubs
- 9 May 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 12 December 2025Kasımpaşa 0–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 19 December 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 KasımpaşaTürkiye Kupası
- 20 March 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Kasımpaşa
- A. Benedyczak4 goals1 assists
- G. Yalçın2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.33 goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1.41 for Kasımpaşa; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: O. Diabate 23' (Gençlerbirliği S.K.), A. Benedyczak 79' (Kasımpaşa), G. Yalcin 90' (Kasımpaşa).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kasımpaşa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. against 1.41 for Kasımpaşa. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.06 for Kasımpaşa.