Fenerbahçe
vs
Eyüpspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Fenerbahçe 1–0 Eyüpspor
The model makes it 48% Fenerbahçe, 29% draw, 23% Eyüpspor — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 1.72, Eyüpspor 0.87.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Fenerbahçe wins, grey are draws, red are Eyüpspor wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor
Fenerbahçe
- D0-0away to Gaziantep FK14 September 2026
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
- W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.15 August 2026
Eyüpspor
- L0-2Rizespor12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Çorum FK6 September 2026
- W2-1Alanyaspor30 August 2026
- L0-1Gaziantep FK23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Beşiktaş16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fenerbahçe | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 17 | Eyüpspor | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor
- 17 May 2026Fenerbahçe 3–3 EyüpsporSüper Lig
- 20 December 2025Eyüpspor 0–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 18 May 2025Fenerbahçe 2–1 EyüpsporSüper Lig
- 20 December 2024Eyüpspor 1–1 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor
Fenerbahçe
- V. Muriqi2 goals1 assists
- M. Greenwood2 goals1 assists
Eyüpspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fenerbahçe carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.54 for Eyüpspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.87 for Eyüpspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fenerbahçe rate 0.86 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eyüpspor rate 0.66 and 1.23.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 0.87 for Eyüpspor. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.23 for Eyüpspor.