Volos NFC
vs
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Volos NFC 1–2 AEK Athens FC
The model makes it 32% Volos NFC, 28% draw, 40% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Volos NFC 1.30, AEK Athens FC 1.59.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Volos NFC wins, grey are draws, red are AEK Athens FC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Athens FC at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC
Volos NFC
- L1-3away to Kalamata13 September 2026
- D1-1Olympiakos Piraeus5 September 2026
- D1-1Iraklis 190829 August 2026
- L0-2away to OFI23 August 2026
AEK Athens FC
- D1-1away to Asteras Tripolis13 September 2026
- W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Kifisia30 August 2026
- W4-0Iraklis 190822 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Volos NFC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 5 | AEK Athens FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC
- 1 March 2026Volos NFC 2–2 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 28 September 2025AEK Athens FC 1–0 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 5 January 2025Volos NFC 2–4 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 16 September 2024AEK Athens FC 2–0 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 3 January 2024AEK Athens FC 3–0 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 3 September 2023Volos NFC 2–3 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC
Volos NFC
- M. González2 goals
AEK Athens FC
- B. Varga4 goals
- Zini2 goals
- L. Jović2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Volos NFC carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.76 for AEK Athens FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Volos NFC and 1.59 for AEK Athens FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Volos NFC rate 0.72 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEK Athens FC rate 0.93 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Volos NFC against 1.59 for AEK Athens FC. Volos NFC's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.11 for AEK Athens FC.