Panetolikos
vs
PAOK
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Panetolikos 1–2 PAOK
The model makes it 34% Panetolikos, 29% draw, 37% PAOK — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Panetolikos 1.34, PAOK 1.43.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Panetolikos vs PAOK
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Panetolikos wins, grey are draws, red are PAOK wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PAOK at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Panetolikos vs PAOK
Panetolikos
- L0-3away to Panathinaikos13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Levadiakos6 September 2026
- W2-0Kalamata29 August 2026
- W3-1Asteras Tripolis23 August 2026
PAOK
- W2-0Aris Thessalonikis13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
- W4-0Levadiakos23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Panetolikos | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 2 | PAOK | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Panetolikos vs PAOK
- 10 January 2026Panetolikos 0–3 PAOKSuper League 1
- 20 September 2025PAOK 0–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 15 December 2024Panetolikos 0–1 PAOKSuper League 1
- 25 August 2024PAOK 2–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 25 February 2024Panetolikos 1–3 PAOKSuper League 1
- 12 November 2023PAOK 2–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Panetolikos and PAOK
Panetolikos
- G. Granath2 goals
- K. Opoku2 goals
- K. Aleksić1 goals
PAOK
- D. Pelkas3 goals
- A. Živković2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Panetolikos carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.76 for PAOK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Panetolikos and 1.43 for PAOK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Panetolikos rate 0.75 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PAOK rate 0.91 and 1.10.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PAOK the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Panetolikos against 1.43 for PAOK. Panetolikos's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.1 for PAOK.