Göztepe vs Rizespor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Göztepe 2-2 Rizespor.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Göztepe, 25% draw, 42% Rizespor — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rizespor at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Göztepe vs Rizespor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Arda ÖzçimenG
- 4Taha AltıkardeşD
- 13Ege YildirimD
- 26Malcom BokeleD
- 2Arda KurtulanM
- 6Alex MatosM
- 5RhaldneyM
- 12Richard AkonnorM
- 7André HenriqueF
- 39JandersonF
- 9Juan Santos da SilvaF
- 18Tino AnjorinM
- 10Efkan BekiroğluM
- 33Mehmet Şamil ÖztürkG
- 8Alexis AntunesM
- 22Sinclair ArmstrongF
- 14Bekir Turaç BökeF
- 75Yahia FofanaG
- 37Taha ŞahinD
- 5Tayyip Talha SanuçD
- 4Attila MocsiD
- 93Modibo SagnanD
- 54Mithat PalaD
- 10Ibrahim OlawoyinM
- 14Taylan AntalyalıM
- 20Qazim LaciM
- 9Ali SoweF
- 99Emrecan BulutF
- 17Zakaria ArissD
- 23Ahmed KutucuF
- 79Iustin DoicaruF
- 70Can BozdoğanM
- 30Zafer GörgenG
- 21Siaka BakayokoD
- 6Moussa DiakitéM
- 8Dal VarešanovićM
- 11Adedire MebudeF
Form going into Göztepe vs Rizespor
Göztepe
Süper Lig
- D2-2away to Alanyaspor12 September 2026
Rizespor
Süper Lig
- W2-0away to Eyüpspor12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 12 |
| 13 | Rizespor | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Göztepe vs Rizespor
- 19 January 2026Göztepe 3–1 RizesporSüper Lig
- 10 August 2025Rizespor 0–3 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 18 May 2025Rizespor 6–3 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 22 December 2024Göztepe 3–0 RizesporSüper Lig
- 16 May 2023Göztepe 3–3 Rizespor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Göztepe and Rizespor
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan61
- André Henrique31
Rizespor
GoalsAssists
- Q. Laçi30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Göztepe and Rizespor drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Rizespor at 42% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Kurtulan 2' for Göztepe, I. Olawoyin 70' for Rizespor, I. Doicaru 81' for Rizespor, E. Bekiroglu (penalty) 90+3' for Göztepe. On expected goals it finished 1.87–0.69.
How the call on Göztepe v Rizespor has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 33% / 25% / 42%: the biggest move is Rizespor's chance of winning, up 12 points.
- Göztepe win33%▼ −10
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Rizespor win42%▲ +12
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.