Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-0 Lillestrom.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 24% draw, 38% Lillestrom — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom
Line-ups
- 98M. DajsinaniG
- 28E. SotaD
- 33E. BitriD
- 6A. AleksiM
- 55G. SmajliD
- 20K. LoukiliM
- 7Fernando MedeirosM
- 10A. AlbaneseM
- 29A. YagoM
- 2D. AdjessaF
- 77I. GrudaM
- 1L. TandilashviliG
- 4Z. AliyevD
- 8I. DiabateM
- 12B. PujaG
- 13A. Kacbufi
- 17A. KryeziuM
- 24N. AjetovikjD
- 99J. MontenegroF
- 12P. DahlbergG
- 2L. RangerD
- 28R. GabrielsenD
- 5S. FossD
- 3S. OttesenD
- 29Y. IbrahimajM
- 18K. KrygardM
- 14G. NyheimM
- 26Y. PaintsilD
- 8F. GulbrandsenF
- 20Felix VaF
- 1S. HagerupG
- 4E. B. GarnasD
- 6H. WoxenM
- 7L. AlperudM
- 11F. ElkaerD
- 15G. NordhM
- 16H. MellandM
- 17E. KitolanoM
- 22J. KitolanoD
Form going into Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- W5-1Shamrock Rovers13 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers4 August 2026
- D1-1away to Celje28 July 2026
- D3-3Celje22 July 2026
Lillestrom
- D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
- L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026
- L0-4away to Bodo/Glimt31 July 2026
- L1-2Viking22 July 2026
- W2-1KFUM Oslo18 July 2026
What these results say
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Egnatia Rrogozhinë.
- Lillestrom conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lillestrom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Lillestrom in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Lillestrom | UEFA Europa League | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Egnatia Rrogozhinë has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · UEFA Europa League