Anderlecht
vs
Kairat Almaty
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 78% Anderlecht, 13% draw, 9% Kairat Almaty — fair odds of 1.28, 7.69 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Anderlecht 3.30, Kairat Almaty 1.15.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Anderlecht
- W2-1RAAL La Louvière9 August 2026
Kairat Almaty
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers
Anderlecht
- A. Bertaccini1 goals
Kairat Almaty
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Anderlecht carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.39 for Kairat Almaty. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Anderlecht W; Kairat Almaty W-W-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.30 goals for Anderlecht and 1.15 for Kairat Almaty. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Anderlecht rate 0.94 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kairat Almaty rate 0.72 and 1.86.
That points to 82% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 3-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Anderlecht the highest probability at 78%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.3 expected goals for Anderlecht against 1.15 for Kairat Almaty. Anderlecht's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.86 for Kairat Almaty.