17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Beşiktaş vs Marseille UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Besiktas Park, Istanbul
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Beşiktaş 4-1 Marseille.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Beşiktaş, 28% draw, 33% Marseille — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Beşiktaş at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Beşiktaş99%Draw1%Marseille0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Emmanuel Agbadou
10'
⚽Ilhan Fakiliassist: Junior Olaitan
15'
29'
⚽Keyliane Abdallahassist: Himad Abdelli
🔁Emmanuel Agbadouout: Tiago Djaló
45'
⚽Václav Černýassist: Orkun Kökçü
56'
58'
🔁Ulisses Garciaout: Emerson Palmieri
58'
🔁Angel Gomesout: Igor Paixão
⚽Amir Murilloassist: Orkun Kökçü
59'
67'
🔁Neal Maupayout: Amine Gouiri
67'
🔁Derek Corneliusout: Nayef Aguerd
🔁Václav Černýout: Ernest Poku
71'
🔁Orkun Kökçüout: Wilfred Ndidi
71'
72'
Amine Harit
⚽Ernest Pokuassist: Junior Olaitan
81'
82'
🔁Keyliane Abdallahout: Tadjidine Mmadi
🔁Junior Olaitanout: Oh Hyeon-gyu
82'
🔁Ilhan Fakiliout: Fabio Miretti
82'
Fabio Miretti
90+5'

Match stats — Beşiktaş vs Marseille

54%Possession46%
18Shots14
7On target3
3Corners3

Line-ups

Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. NübelG
  • 62A. MurilloD
  • 12E. AgbadouD
  • 53E. TopçuD
  • 11K. OuattaraD
  • 6S. ÖzcanM
  • 18V. ČernýM
  • 15J. OlaitanM
  • 10O. KökçüM
  • 29I. FakiliM
  • 28D. VlahovićF
Substitutes
  • 80D. AlemdarG
  • 22Taylan BulutD
  • 35Tiago DjalóD
  • 90S. KılıçsoyF
  • 21F. MirettiM
  • 4W. NdidiM
  • 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
  • 17E. PokuF
  • 33R. YılmazD
Coach: V. Italiano
Marseille 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. de LangeG
  • 22T. WeahD
  • 4C. Egan-RileyD
  • 13D. CorneliusD
  • 25U. GarciaD
  • 23P. HøjbjergM
  • 8H. AbdelliM
  • 48K. AbdallahM
  • 7A. GomesM
  • 77A. HaritM
  • 11N. MaupayF
Substitutes
  • 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
  • 9A. GouiriF
  • 74K. BezahafD
  • 14Igor PaixãoF
  • 21N. AguerdD
  • 18B. MeitéD
  • 46E. MbondoD
  • 43T. MmadiF
  • 33EmersonD
Coach: Bruno Genesio

Form going into Beşiktaş vs Marseille

Beşiktaş

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
  • W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Kauno Žalgiris27 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Alanyaspor23 August 2026

Marseille

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Rennes11 September 2026
  • L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
  • W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026

What these results say

  • Beşiktaş conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Marseille failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Marseille conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Beşiktaş321095+47
34Marseille300316-50

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Marseille

Beşiktaş

GoalsAssists

  • Oh Hyeon-Gyu21
  • A. Murillo20

Marseille

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Beşiktaş beat Marseille 4–1. The model had made a win for Beşiktaş its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ilhan Fakili 15' for Beşiktaş, Keyliane Abdallah 29' for Marseille, Václav Černý 56' for Beşiktaş, Amir Murillo 59' for Beşiktaş, Ernest Poku 81' for Beşiktaş.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.