Juve Stabia
vs
Pisa
Serie B prediction
The model makes it 30% Juve Stabia, 24% draw, 46% Pisa — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Juve Stabia 1.42, Pisa 1.82.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
The two sides
Juve Stabia carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.72 for Pisa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Juve Stabia and 1.82 for Pisa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juve Stabia rate 0.61 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pisa rate 0.94 and 1.23.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pisa the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Juve Stabia against 1.82 for Pisa. Juve Stabia's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.23 for Pisa.