6 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Modena vs Avellino Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Modena 0-1 Avellino.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Modena, 29% draw, 29% Avellino — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Modena at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Modena0%Draw5%Avellino95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽M. Besaggio
19'
🔁A. Favilliout: W. Cheddira
Francesco Zampano
34'
38'
Lorenco Šimić
🔁F. Zampanoout: P. Azzi
46'
46'
🔁F. Missoriout: T. Cancellotti
46'
🔁L. Simicout: M. Venturi
🔁G. Brugmanout: L. Bacchin
63'
65'
🔁M. Besaggioout: D. Sounas
Giuseppe Ambrosino
76'
🔁G. Casoout: D. Montevago
77'
77'
🔁L. Di Maggioout: T. Berenbruch
🔁S. Nadorout: F. Folino
86'
🔁S. Santoroout: K. Bozhanaj
86'
Kleis Bozhanaj
87'
90'
Tommaso Martinelli

Match stats — Modena vs Avellino

62%Possession38%
43Shots6
10On target2
12Corners2
1.91xG0.46

Goals against chances

Modena0 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth
Avellino1 from 0.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Modena 4-3-3
  • 1L. ChichizolaG
  • 77D. TonoliD
  • 6S. NadorD
  • 20B. NielingD
  • 7F. ZampanoD
  • 8S. SantoroM
  • 16G. BrugmanM
  • 42A. BiancoM
  • 72G. OlzerF
  • 70G. AmbrosinoF
  • 10G. CasoF
Substitutes
  • 12A. MaranG
  • 22L. ConsiglioG
  • 28D. AdorniD
  • 23F. FolinoD
  • 34D. RoncoD
  • 27P. AzziM
  • 17K. BozhanajM
  • 26A. ImputatoF
  • 32W. AcquahM
Coach: Daniele Galloppa
Avellino 3-5-2
  • 50T. MartinelliG
  • 4A. IzzoD
  • 44L. SimicD
  • 56P. EnriciD
  • 2F. MissoriM
  • 8L. Di MaggioM
  • 20M. PalumboM
  • 39M. BesaggioM
  • 27B. MoruzziM
  • 10R. RussoF
  • 99A. FavilliF
Substitutes
  • 1A. IannarilliG
  • 29T. CancellottiD
  • 3M. SalaD
  • 24D. SounasM
  • 30E. AdamoM
  • 23M. VenturiD
  • 16G. FaticantiM
  • 18T. BerenbruchM
  • 14T. BiasciF
Coach: Alessandro Nesta

Form going into Modena vs Avellino

Modena

  • W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026

Avellino

  • W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Modena6411116+513
6Avellino6312117+410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Modena vs Avellino

  • 8 May 2026Avellino 1–0 ModenaSerie B
  • 31 August 2025Modena 1–1 AvellinoSerie B

Leading scorers: Modena and Avellino

Modena

GoalsAssists

  • G. Caso31
  • G. Ambrosino22

Avellino

GoalsAssists

  • R. Russo42
  • M. Besaggio30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.