Modena
vs
Avellino
Serie B prediction
The model makes it 44% Modena, 27% draw, 29% Avellino — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Modena 1.48, Avellino 1.17.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Modena
- W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026
Avellino
- L1-2Arezzo22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Modena | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Avellino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Modena carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.41 for Avellino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Modena W; Avellino L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Modena and 1.17 for Avellino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Modena rate 0.54 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Avellino rate 0.60 and 1.45.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Modena the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Modena against 1.17 for Avellino. Modena's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.45 for Avellino.