Vitoria vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 1-0 Gremio.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Vitoria, 27% draw, 27% Gremio — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vitoria at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Gremio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MatheusinhoD
- 2E. BritezD
- 36Luan CandidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 95Caique GoncalvesM
- 88Ze VitorM
- 33ErickM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 71YuriG
- 70FabianoD
- 18KauanD
- 69WandersonD
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 26EdenilsonM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 7MarinhoF
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 1WevertonG
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 82WallaceD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 11TeteM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 10F. KrovinovicM
- 7C. PavonM
- 95Carlos ViniciusF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 2Fabian BalbuenaD
- 18Joao PedroD
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 65RiquelmeM
Form going into Vitoria vs Gremio
Vitoria
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
- L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
- W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
- L0-2away to Flamengo9 August 2026
- L0-4Palmeiras30 July 2026
Gremio
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
- W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
- L2-3away to Botafogo29 July 2026
What these results say
- Vitoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gremio conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gremio had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 36 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Gremio
- 7 September 2026Vitoria 1–0 GremioSerie A
- 19 March 2026Gremio 2–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 28 September 2025Gremio 3–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 27 April 2025Vitoria 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 4 December 2024Vitoria 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 21 July 2024Gremio 2–0 VitoriaSerie A
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Gremio
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene91
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.