Vitoria
vs
Gremio
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 26% Vitoria, 22% draw, 52% Gremio — fair odds of 3.85, 4.55 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Vitoria 1.42, Gremio 2.08.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vitoria
- L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
- W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
- L0-2away to Flamengo9 August 2026
- L0-4Palmeiras30 July 2026
- L0-2away to Remo26 July 2026
Gremio
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
- W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
- D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Vitoria | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 29 |
| 15 | Gremio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Vitoria
No league goals recorded yet.
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vitoria carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.61 for Gremio. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Vitoria L-L-L-W-L; Gremio L-D-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Vitoria and 2.08 for Gremio. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vitoria rate 0.50 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gremio rate 0.90 and 1.50.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vitoria, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gremio the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Vitoria against 2.08 for Gremio. Vitoria's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.5 for Gremio.