Virtus Entella
vs
Vicenza Virtus
Serie B prediction
The model makes it 53% Virtus Entella, 19% draw, 28% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 1.89, 5.26 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Virtus Entella 2.51, Vicenza Virtus 1.83.
Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Virtus Entella
- L0-1away to Sudtirol22 August 2026
Vicenza Virtus
- W3-2Catanzaro21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Virtus Entella | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Vicenza Virtus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Virtus Entella
No league goals recorded yet.
Vicenza Virtus
- C. Morra1 goals
- A. Pietrelli1 goals
- G. Cuomo1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Virtus Entella carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.72 for Vicenza Virtus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Virtus Entella L; Vicenza Virtus W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.51 goals for Virtus Entella and 1.83 for Vicenza Virtus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Virtus Entella rate 0.65 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vicenza Virtus rate 1.27 and 2.04.
That points to 81% for over two and a half goals and 77% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vicenza Virtus, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Virtus Entella the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Virtus Entella against 1.83 for Vicenza Virtus. Virtus Entella's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/2.04 for Vicenza Virtus.