Junior
vs
Deportivo Pereira
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Junior 2–0 Deportivo Pereira
The model makes it 55% Junior, 27% draw, 18% Deportivo Pereira — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Junior 1.98, Deportivo Pereira 0.69.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Junior are 16th on 9 points from 10 games; Deportivo Pereira are 18th on 8 points from 10 games — Primera A.
- Junior have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Atletico Nacional.
- Deportivo Pereira have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Santa Fe.
- Last 6 meetings: Junior 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 February 2026, ended Deportivo Pereira 2–3 Junior.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Junior at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
Junior
- L1-3away to Atletico Nacional1 October 2026
- W2-0Independiente Medellin27 September 2026
- W4-1away to Fortaleza FC20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alianza Valledupar13 September 2026
- D3-3Jaguares6 September 2026
Deportivo Pereira
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Águilas Doradas18 September 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga13 September 2026
- D1-1Millonarios6 September 2026
What these results say
- Junior scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Junior conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pereira did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pereira scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pereira conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Junior | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
- 3 February 2026Deportivo Pereira 2–3 JuniorPrimera A
- 18 October 2025Junior 3–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 27 April 2025Deportivo Pereira 1–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 20 October 2024Junior 3–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 23 May 2024Deportivo Pereira 0–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 19 May 2024Junior 2–3 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
Leading scorers: Junior and Deportivo Pereira
Junior
- L. Muriel14 goals2 assists
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Junior carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.23 for Deportivo Pereira. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Junior and 0.69 for Deportivo Pereira. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Junior rate 0.81 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Pereira rate 0.48 and 1.68.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Junior the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Junior against 0.69 for Deportivo Pereira. Junior's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.68 for Deportivo Pereira.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Junior at home · Deportivo Pereira away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Junior 35, Deportivo Pereira 29.
Junior score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Deportivo Pereira have let in 11 there.
Deportivo Pereira score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Junior have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Junior
- at Deportivo Cali19 Oct · Primera Awin 26%
- vs Águilas Doradas24 Oct · Primera Awin 49%
- at Chico28 Oct · Primera Awin 41%
Deportivo Pereira
- vs Chico20 Oct · Primera Awin 40%
- at Once Caldas25 Oct · Primera Awin 21%
- vs Jaguares30 Oct · Primera Awin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.