Bucaramanga
vs
Águilas Doradas
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Bucaramanga 1–0 Águilas Doradas
The model makes it 51% Bucaramanga, 28% draw, 21% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.78, Águilas Doradas 0.77.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bucaramanga are 5th on 20 points from 10 games; Águilas Doradas are 13th on 11 points from 10 games — Primera A.
- Bucaramanga are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Once Caldas.
- Águilas Doradas have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Deportivo Cali.
- Last 6 meetings: Bucaramanga 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 April 2026, ended Águilas Doradas 2–1 Bucaramanga.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucaramanga at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
Bucaramanga
- W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026
- W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026
- D2-2Independiente Medellin18 September 2026
- W3-1away to Deportivo Pereira13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Cali31 August 2026
Águilas Doradas
- L0-2away to Deportivo Cali28 September 2026
- L0-1away to America de Cali24 September 2026
- D2-2Deportivo Pereira18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Nacional13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Internacional de Bogota6 September 2026
What these results say
- Bucaramanga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Águilas Doradas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Águilas Doradas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 20 |
| 13 | Águilas Doradas | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
- 7 April 2026Águilas Doradas 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 25 August 2025Bucaramanga 4–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 8 March 2025Águilas Doradas 0–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 21 October 2024Águilas Doradas 1–3 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 27 March 2024Bucaramanga 1–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 21 August 2023Bucaramanga 1–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and Águilas Doradas
Bucaramanga
- L. Pons11 goals4 assists
- E. Batalla10 goals5 assists
Águilas Doradas
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto11 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bucaramanga carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.4 for Águilas Doradas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Bucaramanga and 0.77 for Águilas Doradas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bucaramanga rate 0.77 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Águilas Doradas rate 0.64 and 1.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bucaramanga a 13.8% chance of the title and Águilas Doradas 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucaramanga the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Bucaramanga against 0.77 for Águilas Doradas. Bucaramanga's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.59 for Águilas Doradas.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bucaramanga at home · Águilas Doradas away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Bucaramanga 29, Águilas Doradas 29.
Bucaramanga score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Águilas Doradas have let in 9 there.
Águilas Doradas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Bucaramanga have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bucaramanga
- vs America de Cali18 Oct · Primera Awin 37%
- at Chico23 Oct · Primera Awin 42%
- at Santa Fe27 Oct · Primera Awin 29%
- vs Deportivo Pasto31 Oct · Primera Awin 53%
Águilas Doradas
- vs Deportes Tolima17 Oct · Primera Awin 34%
- at Junior24 Oct · Primera Awin 23%
- at Cucuta27 Oct · Primera Awin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.