America de Cali
vs
Independiente Medellin
Primera A prediction
Our model says: America de Cali 1–0 Independiente Medellin
The model makes it 48% America de Cali, 29% draw, 23% Independiente Medellin — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: America de Cali 1.68, Independiente Medellin 0.85.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- America de Cali are top on 24 points from 11 games; Independiente Medellin are 6th on 20 points from 11 games — Primera A.
- America de Cali have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Águilas Doradas.
- Independiente Medellin have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Millonarios.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente Medellin 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 March 2026, ended Independiente Medellin 2–1 America de Cali.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts America de Cali at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto15 September 2026
- W3-0Alianza Valledupar3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares29 August 2026
Independiente Medellin
- D2-2Millonarios30 September 2026
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
- W2-1Jaguares22 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bucaramanga18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Chico12 September 2026
What these results say
- America de Cali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 24 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
- 30 March 2026Independiente Medellin 2–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 2 December 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 27 November 2025America de Cali 2–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 14 November 2025Independiente Medellin 3–0 America de CaliPrimera A
- 20 June 2025America de Cali 1–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 1 June 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 America de CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: America de Cali and Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
- Y. Guzmán18 goals4 assists
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
America de Cali carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.55 for Independiente Medellin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for America de Cali and 0.85 for Independiente Medellin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
America de Cali rate 0.78 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente Medellin rate 0.81 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives America de Cali a 24.6% chance of the title and Independiente Medellin 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America de Cali the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for America de Cali against 0.85 for Independiente Medellin. America de Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.48 for Independiente Medellin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
America de Cali at home · Independiente Medellin away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: America de Cali 32, Independiente Medellin 30.
America de Cali score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Independiente Medellin have let in 9 there.
Independiente Medellin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); America de Cali have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
America de Cali
- at Bucaramanga18 Oct · Primera Awin 31%
- vs Cucuta24 Oct · Primera Awin 58%
- vs Fortaleza FC29 Oct · Primera Awin 55%
- at Millonarios4 Nov · Primera Awin 31%
Independiente Medellin
- vs Once Caldas18 Oct · Primera Awin 45%
- at Atletico Nacional25 Oct · Primera Awin 22%
- at Internacional de Bogota29 Oct · Primera Awin 37%
- vs Alianza Valledupar1 Nov · Primera Awin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.